.No Local Allies in Wings for Mosul Fight
MOSUL, Iraq (AP) - Iraqi and American commanders are preparing for a prolonged - and possibly pivotal - fight against al-Qaida in Iraq in this vital northern hub. But they are missing an essential tool used to uproot insurgents elsewhere: groups of local Sunni fighters.
The so-called Awakening Councils remain conspicuously absent in Mosul and efforts to stir a similar movement appear unlikely amid the region's pecking order of groups. Some military leaders even worry that seeking to enlist local allies could boomerang and bring more unrest.
It could create "the perception that you're arming one side, which automatically creates tension among the groups and has the potential to escalate violence," said Lt. Col. Michael Simmering, of the 3rd Armored Cavalry at Forward Operating Base Marez near Mosul.
This could change the complexion and strategy of the anticipated offensive in the Mosul area, which is believed to be al-Qaida's last major urban stronghold.
In other key showdowns over the past year - including the western Anbar province and Sunni corridors around Baghdad - U.S.-led forces have counted on important help from the Awakening Councils, which provide extra firepower and critical local knowledge.
But areas such as Anbar are almost entirely Sunni and are dominated by a single tribe. Mosul's province, Nineveh, is a patchwork of ethnicities and religious sects that includes Sunni Arabs, Shiites, Kurds and others.
In Anbar, it is "easier to have a model like the Awakening Councils because essentially it is being run by the predominant tribe," said Juan Cole, a Middle East political analyst at the University of Michigan.
"But Nineveh just doesn't look like that, therefore the model is much more difficult to implement," he said.
While about 60 percent of Nineveh is Sunni Arab, there are also large groups of ethnic Turkmen along with Shiite Arabs, Kurds and enclaves for Christians and Yazidis, who follow an ancient faith.
There are approximately eight Awakening Councils around Qarraya, a predominantly Sunni Arab city about 45 miles south of Mosul. But the rest of the province is so mixed that - if the U.S. military were to support one group - it could upset a perceived balance of power and lead to fighting, Simmering said.
The main friction could be caused by the Kurds and their peshmerga fighting force, believed to have more than 60,000 members, and whose semi-autonomous region borders Nineveh.
"The Kurds are expansionists and they would very much like to annex Mosul and parts of Nineveh to the Kurdistan regional authority," Cole said. "There is severe tension between the peshmerga and the Sunni Arabs - and Mosul is something like 80 percent Sunni Arab."
So the risks are clear if U.S. commanders attempt to form Sunni-led Awakening Councils in Iraq's third-largest city, said Cole.
"You're setting up for a civil war," he added.
Mosul has become a prime objective for Iraqi and U.S. forces as insurgents sought new havens after fleeing offensives in and around Baghdad.
Last month, Iraq ordered thousands more police and soldiers to the region after an insurgent bomb cache blew apart a poor Sunni neighborhood, killing about 60 people. Less than a week later, an insurgent ambush killed five U.S. soldiers on patrol.
An al-Qaida front group on Monday threatened more bloodshed, calling on volunteers to carry out suicide attacks on U.S. troops, Iraqi Shiites and Kurdish forces in a statement posted on a Web site commonly used by insurgents.
The scenario does not become simpler outside Mosul.
Within the Sinjar mountain region in the west, for example, there is a strong Kurdish enclave that includes Yazidis - a Kurdish-speaking group whose religion precedes Christianity and Islam. Surrounding all that is a large Sunni Arab population.
"Automatically, creating an Awakening Council there creates the perception that a balance of power has shifted for one side or the other and escalates tensions," Simmering said.
The lack of an Awakening Councils network - working as local informants and paramilitary muscle - forces the Iraqi army to boost its presence throughout Nineveh.
Army Maj. Gen. Mark P. Hertling, the top American commander in northern Iraq, said "Mosul will be more reliant on the Iraqi army and the Iraqi police force for security in their area."
"A lot of U.S. policy in the north is hamstrung. The U.S. can't just do whatever it wants up there because it depends so heavily on the Kurds and peshmerga for general security duties," Cole said.
So creating ties with Sunni militia allies is a dangerous option.
"It's just politically very delicate and the U.S. military would be in danger of breaking with its Kurdish allies if it went in that direction," Cole said.
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The so-called Awakening Councils remain conspicuously absent in Mosul and efforts to stir a similar movement appear unlikely amid the region's pecking order of groups. Some military leaders even worry that seeking to enlist local allies could boomerang and bring more unrest.
It could create "the perception that you're arming one side, which automatically creates tension among the groups and has the potential to escalate violence," said Lt. Col. Michael Simmering, of the 3rd Armored Cavalry at Forward Operating Base Marez near Mosul.
This could change the complexion and strategy of the anticipated offensive in the Mosul area, which is believed to be al-Qaida's last major urban stronghold.
In other key showdowns over the past year - including the western Anbar province and Sunni corridors around Baghdad - U.S.-led forces have counted on important help from the Awakening Councils, which provide extra firepower and critical local knowledge.
But areas such as Anbar are almost entirely Sunni and are dominated by a single tribe. Mosul's province, Nineveh, is a patchwork of ethnicities and religious sects that includes Sunni Arabs, Shiites, Kurds and others.
In Anbar, it is "easier to have a model like the Awakening Councils because essentially it is being run by the predominant tribe," said Juan Cole, a Middle East political analyst at the University of Michigan.
"But Nineveh just doesn't look like that, therefore the model is much more difficult to implement," he said.
While about 60 percent of Nineveh is Sunni Arab, there are also large groups of ethnic Turkmen along with Shiite Arabs, Kurds and enclaves for Christians and Yazidis, who follow an ancient faith.
There are approximately eight Awakening Councils around Qarraya, a predominantly Sunni Arab city about 45 miles south of Mosul. But the rest of the province is so mixed that - if the U.S. military were to support one group - it could upset a perceived balance of power and lead to fighting, Simmering said.
The main friction could be caused by the Kurds and their peshmerga fighting force, believed to have more than 60,000 members, and whose semi-autonomous region borders Nineveh.
"The Kurds are expansionists and they would very much like to annex Mosul and parts of Nineveh to the Kurdistan regional authority," Cole said. "There is severe tension between the peshmerga and the Sunni Arabs - and Mosul is something like 80 percent Sunni Arab."
So the risks are clear if U.S. commanders attempt to form Sunni-led Awakening Councils in Iraq's third-largest city, said Cole.
"You're setting up for a civil war," he added.
Mosul has become a prime objective for Iraqi and U.S. forces as insurgents sought new havens after fleeing offensives in and around Baghdad.
Last month, Iraq ordered thousands more police and soldiers to the region after an insurgent bomb cache blew apart a poor Sunni neighborhood, killing about 60 people. Less than a week later, an insurgent ambush killed five U.S. soldiers on patrol.
An al-Qaida front group on Monday threatened more bloodshed, calling on volunteers to carry out suicide attacks on U.S. troops, Iraqi Shiites and Kurdish forces in a statement posted on a Web site commonly used by insurgents.
The scenario does not become simpler outside Mosul.
Within the Sinjar mountain region in the west, for example, there is a strong Kurdish enclave that includes Yazidis - a Kurdish-speaking group whose religion precedes Christianity and Islam. Surrounding all that is a large Sunni Arab population.
"Automatically, creating an Awakening Council there creates the perception that a balance of power has shifted for one side or the other and escalates tensions," Simmering said.
The lack of an Awakening Councils network - working as local informants and paramilitary muscle - forces the Iraqi army to boost its presence throughout Nineveh.
Army Maj. Gen. Mark P. Hertling, the top American commander in northern Iraq, said "Mosul will be more reliant on the Iraqi army and the Iraqi police force for security in their area."
"A lot of U.S. policy in the north is hamstrung. The U.S. can't just do whatever it wants up there because it depends so heavily on the Kurds and peshmerga for general security duties," Cole said.
So creating ties with Sunni militia allies is a dangerous option.
"It's just politically very delicate and the U.S. military would be in danger of breaking with its Kurdish allies if it went in that direction," Cole said.
MyWay
No Sharecroppers?
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