Kurds symbolize Iraq's challenge

NEW YORK -- Those who know even a little bit about the ethnic and political stew that is Iraq know that the northern, Kurdish region of that country has been a bastion of relative calm since the United States-led invasion of 2003. Indeed, at the time U.S. forces entered Iraq, it was the only part of that nation that was already largely free from Saddam Hussein's rule.

So the fact that the Kurdistan Region is now at the forefront of a new threat to Iraq's stability demonstrates once again just how complex the Iraq picture is, both within that country and for the nations bordering it.

For the moment, the threat does not come from Iran or Syria but rather Turkey, a U.S. ally. You may remember that, in the days leading up to the American invasion, Turkey refused to allow the United States to use its territory to mount an incursion of Iraq from the north. During that same period, then-Secretary of State Colin Powell felt compelled to warn Turkey not to launch a simultaneous invasion of Iraq.

Turkey's view of Iraq has been and continues to be complicated by the threat it perceives from the Kurds -- some of whom live in Turkey and some of whom live in northern Iraq, a result of the division of the Ottoman Empire early in the 20th century. Turkey has long tried to suppress drives for Kurdish autonomy within its own borders and worries that Kurdish independence from Iraq would further fuel the secessionist tendencies of its internal Kurdish population.

This is one of the reasons that the various calls for partition of Iraq -- Kurds in the north, Sunnis in the center and Shias in the south -- have not gained much traction, despite the sectarian and ethnic violence that has raged for the past few years. To allow such a thing, the White House knows, would be to invite the ire of a key regional ally.

Now, though, Turkey is turning up the pressure on Iraq and the United States, even though partition isn't even on the table. Amid Turkish claims that Kurdish rebels are using Iraq as a staging ground for cross-border attacks, the Turkish parliament has voted overwhelmingly to authorize strikes against these rebels in Iraq.

Such an action, if taken, would represent a major blow to U.S. efforts to stabilize Iraq and, ultimately, withdraw U.S. forces in substantial numbers. To get a sense of what a mess this could become, one might consider the following: How would U.S. forces in northern Iraq react to a Turkish invasion? How would Iraq's military react? How might the Kurds react to a potential influx into their region of Iraqi government forces, many of whom would be Shia and Sunni? And finally, would such an invasion pull Iran, which has its own grievances against the Kurds, deeper into Iraq?

At a time when there are claims of U.S. success against al-Qaida in Iraq, the present situation serves as a reminder that the ethnic-sectarian puzzle in that country has been and remains the key to any hopes for peace. Because the Kurdish region has not been a hotbed of violence, it has been easy for Americans to overlook. But as the home to much of Iraq's oil wealth, it is central to attempts to unite Iraq. And it remains squarely in the sights of an ally that could strike as devastating a blow to U.S. efforts in Iraq as any enemy.
SeattlePI

Victory in Iraq, it would seem, is not an option our allies, nor our enemies, are willing to consider.