Monday, May 01, 2006

Settling Iraq before it Blows Up

"A renewed debate on the possible partition of Iraq is emerging.

Let's get one thing out of the way. As for letting a civil war rage, deliberately, I don't understand. Everyone is (rightly) complaining about world inaction on the genocide in the Sudan. But here you want to provoke a genocide (maybe a million dead and 5 million displaced) and have troops in the region and not intervene? Doesn't that make you worse than Khartoum? It is despicable. And, remember that such a war a) would not stay inside Iraq--it would become regional; and b) a full-scale war in the Persian Gulf region will lead to a big increase in your gasoline prices (as in, you ain't seen nuttin' yet).

Personally, I am against breaking up Iraq. I don't think it is more unworkable than Nigeria or Lebanon. And, the consequences are unforeseeable and potentially very, very dangerous.

I do, however, believe that the tendencies toward separatism must be recognized and managed.

I say that we make 5 superprovinces: Deep South, Middle Euphrates, Baghdad, Sunnistan, and Kurdistan, along with two smaller ethnic enclaves, of Turkomanistan and Chaldeanistan in the north. Bear with me."
Juan Cole
And this is the simple partition plan? I would hate o see what the complicated one looks like, or what the real effect on the ground from this plan would be.

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