Shiite militias a bigger problem than al-Qaida, officers say

BAGHDAD – Despite President Bush's recent insistence that al-Qaida in Iraq is the principal cause of this country's violence, senior American military officers here say Shiite Muslim militias are a bigger problem, and one that will persist even if al-Qaida is defeated.

“The longer-term threat to Iraq is potentially the Shiite militias,” one senior military officer said, echoing concerns that other American officials raised in recent interviews with McClatchy Newspapers.

Military officers hail the fact that violence is down as evidence that their campaign against al-Qaida in Iraq is succeeding. But there's no sign of reconciliation between Sunni Muslims and Shiites, the rationale the Bush administration cites for increasing the number of U.S. troops in the country.

The Shiite Mahdi Army militia continues to drive Sunni residents from neighborhoods in Baghdad, a development that one American officer called “disappointing.” Shiite politicians show little sympathy for the expelled Sunnis or interest in stopping the expulsions. In interviews, they argued that the drive against Sunnis is a justified response to Sunni campaigns to drive Shiites from their neighborhoods, a position that American military officers reject.

American officials say they're hopeful about the recent decision by some Sunni insurgent groups to cooperate with U.S. troops to defeat al-Qaida in Iraq. But some of America's new Sunni allies warn that once they've disposed of the religious extremists in their midst, they'll return to battling rival Shiites – and American occupiers.

Meanwhile, Sunni politicians are boycotting the Shiite-led government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and threatening to withdraw permanently if 12 demands aren't met, including an end to Shiite militias' infiltration of Iraqi security forces.

More alarming, American officers say that battles for supremacy among armed Shiite groups will be the next challenge, and that U.S. forces are likely to be drawn into those disputes. Already, the U.S. is taking sides, sending attack aircraft to back Iraqi security forces against radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army.

Combating the influence of Shiite militias had long been a cornerstone of American policy in Iraq. But that position changed last January, when President Bush, facing rising congressional and public opposition to the war in Iraq, pronounced al-Qaida the No. 1 cause of violence there and said he was dispatching more than 20,000 additional troops to confront the problem.

In the months since, as congressional criticism grew, Bush has gone even further, calling al-Qaida in Iraq “the same people” responsible for the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, though al-Qaida in Iraq didn't form until after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and has at best only hazy ties to the al-Qaida of Osama bin Laden.

Few officials on the front lines, moreover, think that defeating the terrorist organization would end Iraq's troubles. They paint a far oore complex vision of the violence than is evident in Washington-based pronouncements about al-Qaida's involvement.

In an interview with McClatchy, Army Gen. David Petraeus, the top American military commander in Iraq, said the military offensive had decimated al-Qaida in Iraq's leadership, not only in Baghdad but also in other key locations such as Diyala province. He cited a decline in massive car-bombings in the capital as one sign that al-Qaida has been unable to find experienced operatives to replace leaders who've been killed or detained in the current U.S.-led offensive.

But Petraeus acknowledged that he'd just returned from a meeting with prominent Shiite politicians to discuss Shiite militias' infiltration of the security forces and their role in death squads that have been targeting Sunnis.

Other U.S. military officers, who agreed to speak only if they weren't named because of the sensitive nature of the subject, point out that Shiite militias regularly battle one another in largely Shiite southern Iraq, where there's never been much of an al-Qaida presence.

Adding to concerns is a realization among American officials that they don't know the Mahdi Army's intentions in Baghdad. Will Sadr's group be satisfied with driving Sunnis into traditionally Sunni districts or will it seek to purge those districts too?

“A lot of what goes on in the wee hours of the morning, whether it's Shiite death squads or Sunnis in al-Qaida in Iraq, we don't know about,” a senior military official said. “Single-sect neighborhoods tend to be more stable. It may not be ethical and moral the way they're created, but the results are undeniable.”

Although they're Maliki's most powerful supporters, American officials aren't certain about the prime minister's intentions, either. One officer said his primary question remained whether Maliki wanted an Iraqi society in which members of all sects participated equally.

While Maliki has promised to rein in militias, prominent oembers of the United Iraqi Alliance, the Shiite alliance that dominates Iraq's parliament, have expressed little outrage that Shiite militias are targeting Sunnis. They say the attacks are merely payback for years of oppression by Saddam Hussein's Sunni-led dictatorship and for Sunni insurgent car bombs in predominately Shiite areas.
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