.Analysis: Hezbollah, Lebanon at Odds
BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) - A month after fighting in Lebanon ended, hostilities with Israel have given way to a political struggle between the Western-backed government and Hezbollah as Lebanese troops try to take control of the Islamic militant group's longtime southern stronghold.
The outcome could prove crucial to the stability of the cease-fire with Israel and to the future of Lebanon's fragile central government - at a time when Syria, a key patron of Hezbollah, is trying to claw back the influence it lost last year.
Prime Minister Fuad Saniora on Thursday vowed to impose army control over the south, a day after Hezbollah's leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah boasted that his armed fighters remained in villages and towns on the border with Israel.
"We want this area to be under the army's and the Lebanese state's control," Saniora said.
Neither the 15,000 Lebanese troops nor an equal number of U.N. peacekeepers who are to patrol a buffer zone in the south have the mandate or willpower to forcibly disarm Hezbollah.
But the presence of 30,000 soldiers will prevent Hezbollah from flaunting its weapons and is likely to severely limit its activities. Hezbollah has all but run a state-within-a-state in the south, with its armed wing, role in government and strong social services network.
Another possible source of friction is the effort to stop Hezbollah from bringing in new weapons to rebuild its arsenal. Iran is believed to be its main arms supplier and financial backer.
For years the government ignored the shipments, but is now heightening checks at the borders, while European warships are patrolling Lebanese waters. European Union personnel are to monitor Beirut international airport and Syria's border with Lebanon for weapons imports.
The Lebanese army has been sending thousands of troops to the south, where it has been absent for decades, and has been taking over control of border areas as the Israeli forces withdraw.
There are signs Hezbollah is already chafing and turning its anger at Saniora.
At a rally last week in a part of Beirut's southern suburbs destroyed by Israeli bombing Hezbollah mounted its first public show of strength since the fighting ended on Aug. 14, rallying tens of thousands of people to hear speeches demanding the government's resignation.
Nasrallah, in an interview with Al-Jazeera TV, called Saniora's administration an American tool and said it did nothing to defend Lebanon against Israel.
That criticism followed protests at last week's warm government welcome for British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Protesters accused him of tacitly backing the Israeli offensive by supporting President Bush's refusal to call for a quick cease-fire.
Hezbollah and Syria feel threatened by the Saniora government, and Damascus wants to engineer a change, said Edmond Saab, executive editor of Lebanon's leading daily, An-Nahar.
"We are seeing a hidden struggle between Syria and the forces in Lebanon which oppose its influence. Hezbollah is trying to bring with it more allies to the Cabinet in order to protect itself," Saab said.
Hezbollah has two ministers in Saniora's Cabinet. It now wants to add Gen. Michael Aoun, a Hezbollah ally. The Christian opposition leader is a harsh critic of the Saniora government that is backed by the anti-Syrian parliamentary majority.
Saniora, a pro-Western Sunni Muslim, came to power after the protests that followed the Feb. 14, 2005, assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri in Beirut, an attack that his supporters blamed on Syria and led to the end of the 29-year Syrian military presence in Lebanon two months later. Damascus has denied any role.
But Hezbollah has strong support among the historically disadvantaged Shiite Muslims - Lebanon's largest religious group. Shiite support for Hezbollah soared after it continued to pound Israel with rockets despite heavy Israeli bombardment. Hezbollah then increased its popularity by jump-starting reconstruction, offering initial cash payments of up to $12,000 for Christian as well as Muslim families who lost their homes.
Yet Saniora's image also has benefited from his success in negotiating a cease-fire, Saab said, and many Lebanese are privately critical of Hezbollah's role in provoking the fight by snatching two of Israel's soldiers, sparking a conflict that killed hundreds.
With presidential elections a year away, the battle for influence is likely to intensify. Under Lebanon's power-sharing constitution, the presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian and Aoun is likely to run with Hezbollah's support.
"Hezbollah is still extremely popular among the Shiite community. Their power base is intact. There is no way you can disarm Hezbollah - neither the government, nor anyone else," said Farid al-Khazen, a lawmaker from Aoun's bloc.
If Hezbollah gains the upper hand, this will allow it to put obstacles in the way of the U.N. cease-fire resolution that calls for its eventual disarmament, its opponents say.
"Without the current government, the implementation of the U.N. resolution will be in doubt," anti-Syrian lawmaker Atef Majdalani said.
MyWay
The outcome could prove crucial to the stability of the cease-fire with Israel and to the future of Lebanon's fragile central government - at a time when Syria, a key patron of Hezbollah, is trying to claw back the influence it lost last year.
Prime Minister Fuad Saniora on Thursday vowed to impose army control over the south, a day after Hezbollah's leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah boasted that his armed fighters remained in villages and towns on the border with Israel.
"We want this area to be under the army's and the Lebanese state's control," Saniora said.
Neither the 15,000 Lebanese troops nor an equal number of U.N. peacekeepers who are to patrol a buffer zone in the south have the mandate or willpower to forcibly disarm Hezbollah.
But the presence of 30,000 soldiers will prevent Hezbollah from flaunting its weapons and is likely to severely limit its activities. Hezbollah has all but run a state-within-a-state in the south, with its armed wing, role in government and strong social services network.
Another possible source of friction is the effort to stop Hezbollah from bringing in new weapons to rebuild its arsenal. Iran is believed to be its main arms supplier and financial backer.
For years the government ignored the shipments, but is now heightening checks at the borders, while European warships are patrolling Lebanese waters. European Union personnel are to monitor Beirut international airport and Syria's border with Lebanon for weapons imports.
The Lebanese army has been sending thousands of troops to the south, where it has been absent for decades, and has been taking over control of border areas as the Israeli forces withdraw.
There are signs Hezbollah is already chafing and turning its anger at Saniora.
At a rally last week in a part of Beirut's southern suburbs destroyed by Israeli bombing Hezbollah mounted its first public show of strength since the fighting ended on Aug. 14, rallying tens of thousands of people to hear speeches demanding the government's resignation.
Nasrallah, in an interview with Al-Jazeera TV, called Saniora's administration an American tool and said it did nothing to defend Lebanon against Israel.
That criticism followed protests at last week's warm government welcome for British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Protesters accused him of tacitly backing the Israeli offensive by supporting President Bush's refusal to call for a quick cease-fire.
Hezbollah and Syria feel threatened by the Saniora government, and Damascus wants to engineer a change, said Edmond Saab, executive editor of Lebanon's leading daily, An-Nahar.
"We are seeing a hidden struggle between Syria and the forces in Lebanon which oppose its influence. Hezbollah is trying to bring with it more allies to the Cabinet in order to protect itself," Saab said.
Hezbollah has two ministers in Saniora's Cabinet. It now wants to add Gen. Michael Aoun, a Hezbollah ally. The Christian opposition leader is a harsh critic of the Saniora government that is backed by the anti-Syrian parliamentary majority.
Saniora, a pro-Western Sunni Muslim, came to power after the protests that followed the Feb. 14, 2005, assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri in Beirut, an attack that his supporters blamed on Syria and led to the end of the 29-year Syrian military presence in Lebanon two months later. Damascus has denied any role.
But Hezbollah has strong support among the historically disadvantaged Shiite Muslims - Lebanon's largest religious group. Shiite support for Hezbollah soared after it continued to pound Israel with rockets despite heavy Israeli bombardment. Hezbollah then increased its popularity by jump-starting reconstruction, offering initial cash payments of up to $12,000 for Christian as well as Muslim families who lost their homes.
Yet Saniora's image also has benefited from his success in negotiating a cease-fire, Saab said, and many Lebanese are privately critical of Hezbollah's role in provoking the fight by snatching two of Israel's soldiers, sparking a conflict that killed hundreds.
With presidential elections a year away, the battle for influence is likely to intensify. Under Lebanon's power-sharing constitution, the presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian and Aoun is likely to run with Hezbollah's support.
"Hezbollah is still extremely popular among the Shiite community. Their power base is intact. There is no way you can disarm Hezbollah - neither the government, nor anyone else," said Farid al-Khazen, a lawmaker from Aoun's bloc.
If Hezbollah gains the upper hand, this will allow it to put obstacles in the way of the U.N. cease-fire resolution that calls for its eventual disarmament, its opponents say.
"Without the current government, the implementation of the U.N. resolution will be in doubt," anti-Syrian lawmaker Atef Majdalani said.
MyWay
posted by madtom at 9:03 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home