.The Last Word: Efraim Halevy—Matters of Intelligence
May 15-22, 2006 issue - Few know more about the behind-the-scenes machinations in the Middle East than Israel's notorious Mossad intelligence agency. Of course, the Mossad has inspired its fair share of conspiracy theories as well. As the agency's director from 1998 to 2002, Efraim Halevy was at the center of many of them—from the fallout after an actual botched plot to smear poison on the neck of Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal, to the apocryphal stories of what the agency knew before September 11. NEWSWEEK's Kevin Peraino asked Halevy—currently promoting his new memoir, "Man in the Shadows"—for his thoughts on Iran's nuclear ambitions and the ongoing unrest in the region. Excerpts:
PERAINO: How far away do you think Iran is from getting the bomb?
HALEVY: I think there is a necessity to define exactly what you are talking about. If the problem is how far are they from getting the potential where they can produce a nuclear device, that's one question. The [real] question is whether they are capable of putting together a credible strategic capability, which is something different. I would say that within the next decade they would have the chance of getting the capability if they were left alone.
Why do U.S. and Israeli intelligence estimates seem to differ on this?
I don't think the Americans and the Israelis are talking about the same thing. I think the Israelis are talking about what I was saying before, and I think the Americans are talking about something more comprehensive. I think the difference between the American and Israeli estimates is not that far apart.
Do you think regime change is necessary in Iran?
Ultimately, there will be no real solution to the Iranian problem without dealing with it in its entirety. I think the United States has embarked on efforts to, uh ... encourage the regime change.
Could Iran's nuclear program be deterred, as former U.S. national-security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski recently suggested?
With all due respect, I differ from Brzezinski on this. I think once the Iranians have the capability, one should not assume that their mind-set would be the mind-set that we would like it to be. One of the big mistakes that can be made is to believe that once the Iranians have the capability, that they'll think like people think when they're in Washington.
What kind of retaliation could the world expect in the event of an attack on Iran?
The Iranians supported terrorism of the Hizbullah type, and one has to take into account that Iran might resort to this.
With the current situation in Lebanon, would Hizbullah necessarily take orders from Iran?
Look, Hizbullah is a Shiite force in Lebanon, and as such they take their inspiration from Iran. They receive arms and military support from Iran. However, if pressure in Lebanon continues to mount internally, it could be that under very, very severe strain, Hizbullah in Lebanon would act in its own self-interest, rather than simply a subsidiary of Iranian policies.
Is there anything that the United States can do to salvage the war in Iraq?
I would say one thing. I think it's very important at this particular juncture to try to propel one or two or three local military figures of the emerging Iraqi armed forces to be a visible part of the administration. The people in Iraq have become accustomed over the years to a certain style of leadership. And there is a great importance to be attached to the symbol of a uniform.
Are you talking about a military dictator?
No, I'm not saying a military dictator. I don't want to say something against the democratization process. But somewhere in the bevy of leadership there should also be uniformed people who are prominent who would command the respect of the population.
Is the current Israeli policy of squeezing and hoping to topple Hamas the right policy? Or is a more nuanced approach called for?
I think it is legitimate to maintain pressure on the government, and to press the government in order to bring about—I don't know about a regime change—but to bring about a policy change. There are people in Hamas who are no fools. Hamas has nuances within it. I think Hamas is making a mistake in letting [Damascus-based political bureau leader] Khaled Meshaal be a party to the decision-making process in Hamas. The decisions should be made by the current leadership inside the territories.
Do you think Hamas will be able to raise the money required to keep the Palestinian Authority afloat?
I think there's no chance. They went to Iran, and the Iranians offered them a paltry $50 million. That's less than what they need for one month. And the money has not yet come through, anyway. Hamas will have to learn the hard way.
Newsweek
PERAINO: How far away do you think Iran is from getting the bomb?
HALEVY: I think there is a necessity to define exactly what you are talking about. If the problem is how far are they from getting the potential where they can produce a nuclear device, that's one question. The [real] question is whether they are capable of putting together a credible strategic capability, which is something different. I would say that within the next decade they would have the chance of getting the capability if they were left alone.
Why do U.S. and Israeli intelligence estimates seem to differ on this?
I don't think the Americans and the Israelis are talking about the same thing. I think the Israelis are talking about what I was saying before, and I think the Americans are talking about something more comprehensive. I think the difference between the American and Israeli estimates is not that far apart.
Do you think regime change is necessary in Iran?
Ultimately, there will be no real solution to the Iranian problem without dealing with it in its entirety. I think the United States has embarked on efforts to, uh ... encourage the regime change.
Could Iran's nuclear program be deterred, as former U.S. national-security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski recently suggested?
With all due respect, I differ from Brzezinski on this. I think once the Iranians have the capability, one should not assume that their mind-set would be the mind-set that we would like it to be. One of the big mistakes that can be made is to believe that once the Iranians have the capability, that they'll think like people think when they're in Washington.
What kind of retaliation could the world expect in the event of an attack on Iran?
The Iranians supported terrorism of the Hizbullah type, and one has to take into account that Iran might resort to this.
With the current situation in Lebanon, would Hizbullah necessarily take orders from Iran?
Look, Hizbullah is a Shiite force in Lebanon, and as such they take their inspiration from Iran. They receive arms and military support from Iran. However, if pressure in Lebanon continues to mount internally, it could be that under very, very severe strain, Hizbullah in Lebanon would act in its own self-interest, rather than simply a subsidiary of Iranian policies.
Is there anything that the United States can do to salvage the war in Iraq?
I would say one thing. I think it's very important at this particular juncture to try to propel one or two or three local military figures of the emerging Iraqi armed forces to be a visible part of the administration. The people in Iraq have become accustomed over the years to a certain style of leadership. And there is a great importance to be attached to the symbol of a uniform.
Are you talking about a military dictator?
No, I'm not saying a military dictator. I don't want to say something against the democratization process. But somewhere in the bevy of leadership there should also be uniformed people who are prominent who would command the respect of the population.
Is the current Israeli policy of squeezing and hoping to topple Hamas the right policy? Or is a more nuanced approach called for?
I think it is legitimate to maintain pressure on the government, and to press the government in order to bring about—I don't know about a regime change—but to bring about a policy change. There are people in Hamas who are no fools. Hamas has nuances within it. I think Hamas is making a mistake in letting [Damascus-based political bureau leader] Khaled Meshaal be a party to the decision-making process in Hamas. The decisions should be made by the current leadership inside the territories.
Do you think Hamas will be able to raise the money required to keep the Palestinian Authority afloat?
I think there's no chance. They went to Iran, and the Iranians offered them a paltry $50 million. That's less than what they need for one month. And the money has not yet come through, anyway. Hamas will have to learn the hard way.
Newsweek
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