.Kirkuk dispute bedevils Iraq's political crisis
The future status of the oil-rich disputed province of Kirkuk lies behind Iraq's current political crisis - complicating the creation of a stable post-invasion political order.
Iraqi leaders yesterday overcame the most recent obstacle to forming the first permanent post-invasion government, a seemingly minor but nonetheless bitter disagreement over when parliament should meet.
Parliament is now set to meet on March 19, four days later than a constitutional deadline, after the Shia demanded more time to settle disagreements over Ibrahim al-Jaafari, prime minister.
The Jaafari dispute however is only a symptom of deeper rifts.
Iraq's newly elected legislature is split almost down the middle between the United Iraqi Alliance, the Shia-led ruling coalition of which Mr Jaafari's Dawa party is a member, and an alliance comprising Kurds, Sunni Arabs, and allies of the secular-leaning Shia leader Iyad Allawi who say they cannot work with him.
Each group has its reasons to oppose Mr Jaafari - the Sunnis say he has failed to protect them from Shia death squads - but the initiators of this particular push to unseat him are the Kurds, and their key grievance is Kirkuk.
The future of the province is the emotional centre of Iraqi Kurdish nationalism. Saddam Hussein enacted a policy of "Arabisation" that drove Kurds and other non-Arabs from Kirkuk and replaced them with settlers, mainly from the Shia south, and made border adjustments to cut the Kurdish population of Iraq's northern oil centre.
Kurds say Arabisation must be reversed, and what will then presumably be a Kurdish-majority province should vote on whether or not to join the autonomous Kurdistan federal region.
Many Shia leaders balked at these demands. Sunni and Shia Arab public opinion is distrustful of Kurdish autonomy and loath to extend it to Kirkuk. Mr Jaafari in particular is believed to support a strong central government.
However, the need to reach consensus to form a postwar government eventually led to an accord, first cemented in Article 58 of Iraq's 2004 transitional constitution, and reaffirmed in the permanent constitution approved in October, that falls roughly in line with the Kurdish vision for the city.
According to Iraq's current constitution, the "normalisation" of Kirkuk and the referendum are supposed to be completed by December 31 2007.
The Kurds have long accused Mr Jaafari of stonewalling on the accord. They say his government has settled only a fraction of the hundreds of thousands of refugees eligible for resettlement. The issue briefly paralysed the formation of Iraq's transitional government a year ago, until the Shia provided written guarantees that Article 58 would be implemented.
The spark that launched the current crisis was a visit last month to Turkey by Mr Jaafari. The Kurds say they were not told in advance of this trip to a country they perceive as hostile to their national aspirations.
"Jaafari has been the prime minister for the last year. The Kurds have had always a problem with him . . . not implementing Article 58," says an independent Kurdish politician, Mahmoud Othman. The Ankara trip, he says, "ignited" the issue.
The Shia deny keeping the Ankara trip secret from the Kurds, and claim they are not trying to back out of their commitments - they merely need more time. "We in the Dawa party and the UIA intend to implement the constitution to the letter," says Haydar al-Abadi, an adviser to Mr Jaafari.
However, he adds, "we have until the end of 2007. . . The county is in a very bad shape for [the Kurds] to make such a demand."
Few would deny the process is politically delicate. Many Sunni Arabs and Turkomen in the province strongly oppose Kirkuk ever becoming part of an autonomous Kurdistan, as do some of Mr Jaafari's Shia allies.
However, the Kurds say they have no faith in Mr Jaafari, and insist on another leader. The Shia meanwhile say the Kurds should not personalise a policy dispute.
With the stand-off showing no sign of ending, Time magazine reported that the US ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, wanted to hold a conference where all factions would be coaxed into agreeing a common policy. If it happens, an item that many Iraqis thought settled two years ago will be one of the first things on the agenda.
FT.com
Iraqi leaders yesterday overcame the most recent obstacle to forming the first permanent post-invasion government, a seemingly minor but nonetheless bitter disagreement over when parliament should meet.
Parliament is now set to meet on March 19, four days later than a constitutional deadline, after the Shia demanded more time to settle disagreements over Ibrahim al-Jaafari, prime minister.
The Jaafari dispute however is only a symptom of deeper rifts.
Iraq's newly elected legislature is split almost down the middle between the United Iraqi Alliance, the Shia-led ruling coalition of which Mr Jaafari's Dawa party is a member, and an alliance comprising Kurds, Sunni Arabs, and allies of the secular-leaning Shia leader Iyad Allawi who say they cannot work with him.
Each group has its reasons to oppose Mr Jaafari - the Sunnis say he has failed to protect them from Shia death squads - but the initiators of this particular push to unseat him are the Kurds, and their key grievance is Kirkuk.
The future of the province is the emotional centre of Iraqi Kurdish nationalism. Saddam Hussein enacted a policy of "Arabisation" that drove Kurds and other non-Arabs from Kirkuk and replaced them with settlers, mainly from the Shia south, and made border adjustments to cut the Kurdish population of Iraq's northern oil centre.
Kurds say Arabisation must be reversed, and what will then presumably be a Kurdish-majority province should vote on whether or not to join the autonomous Kurdistan federal region.
Many Shia leaders balked at these demands. Sunni and Shia Arab public opinion is distrustful of Kurdish autonomy and loath to extend it to Kirkuk. Mr Jaafari in particular is believed to support a strong central government.
However, the need to reach consensus to form a postwar government eventually led to an accord, first cemented in Article 58 of Iraq's 2004 transitional constitution, and reaffirmed in the permanent constitution approved in October, that falls roughly in line with the Kurdish vision for the city.
According to Iraq's current constitution, the "normalisation" of Kirkuk and the referendum are supposed to be completed by December 31 2007.
The Kurds have long accused Mr Jaafari of stonewalling on the accord. They say his government has settled only a fraction of the hundreds of thousands of refugees eligible for resettlement. The issue briefly paralysed the formation of Iraq's transitional government a year ago, until the Shia provided written guarantees that Article 58 would be implemented.
The spark that launched the current crisis was a visit last month to Turkey by Mr Jaafari. The Kurds say they were not told in advance of this trip to a country they perceive as hostile to their national aspirations.
"Jaafari has been the prime minister for the last year. The Kurds have had always a problem with him . . . not implementing Article 58," says an independent Kurdish politician, Mahmoud Othman. The Ankara trip, he says, "ignited" the issue.
The Shia deny keeping the Ankara trip secret from the Kurds, and claim they are not trying to back out of their commitments - they merely need more time. "We in the Dawa party and the UIA intend to implement the constitution to the letter," says Haydar al-Abadi, an adviser to Mr Jaafari.
However, he adds, "we have until the end of 2007. . . The county is in a very bad shape for [the Kurds] to make such a demand."
Few would deny the process is politically delicate. Many Sunni Arabs and Turkomen in the province strongly oppose Kirkuk ever becoming part of an autonomous Kurdistan, as do some of Mr Jaafari's Shia allies.
However, the Kurds say they have no faith in Mr Jaafari, and insist on another leader. The Shia meanwhile say the Kurds should not personalise a policy dispute.
With the stand-off showing no sign of ending, Time magazine reported that the US ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, wanted to hold a conference where all factions would be coaxed into agreeing a common policy. If it happens, an item that many Iraqis thought settled two years ago will be one of the first things on the agenda.
FT.com
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