.Civil war and Kurds in Iraq
Last week's bombing of the revered Shiite al-Askari Mosque in Samara, Iraq has brought the country to the verge of a civil war. Al-Qaeda operatives' strategic terror attacks and complicated power relations with the sectarian elements of Iraq could make a possible civil war particularly bloody. As of now, although there appears to be a civil war looming between the Shiite and Sunni Arabs, unless it's prevented from happening the Kurds will be the target of a civil war as well within a couple of months.
Since the main motivation of the current conflict is to gain power, the most attractive targets are naturally the ethnic elements with the greatest power. From this perspective, a provocative al-Qaeda bombing in northern Iraq, such as the one of al-Askari Mosque, will come as no surprise to us.
Should there be a civil war, two key questions are deeply related to the Kurds' position in it: What would the U.S.' policy be if civil war erupted and how would the Kurds react to it? Would they declare their independence and take over the city of Kirkuk, or do they have any other options? What would the Arabs' attitude towards the Kurds be?
The answer to these questions, unfortunately, is not an optimistic one. The Pentagon's strategy for a possible civil war is based on the idea that U.S. troops won't intervene. Even withdrawing from Iraq until the civil war ended is among the options discussed by the Pentagon. Their plans indicate that in the case of a civil war either the U.S. army will be relocated to northern Iraq, the Kurdish region, or it will pull out of the country.
In either case it's very likely that the Kurds would declare their independence and try to incorporate the city of Kirkuk into their independent Kurdistan. Events over the last two years have shown that once the Kurds seized the city they would implement every possible policy, including ethnic cleansing, to get rid of the other ethnic elements in the city, namely the Arabs and the Turkmens. This would foster additional hostility among the Sunni and the Shiite Arabs towards the Kurds. As both the Sunnis and the Shiites see the Kurds as agents of the U.S., they don't trust them. Moreover, they see Kurdish independence as the establishment of a second Israel in the region, which, of course, isn't an idea welcomed by either side. We all know the Sunnis' position towards Kurdish independence. They won't accept it. Above all, if the Kurds push to take over the city of Kirkuk, the Arabs will fight for it.
The Shiites position, on the other hand, is very close to that of the Sunnis, as radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr stated on Feb. 18 on Aljazeera TV. When he was asked about Kirkuk, al-Sadr replied, "The Kurdistan confederacy was established in the north because of the then dictatorship. When the foreign occupation ends and a democratic state is established in Iraq with freedom of belief and freedom of peoples, there will be no reason to maintain a separate provincial confederacy. And it won't need to demand Kirkuk; the city belongs to all of Iraq and all must equally benefit from it." He further suggested "it be kept as a province and an example of communal harmony, rather than being partitioned by an ethnic group." This view is pretty much shared by all Arabs in Iraq.
Given this complicated situation, any Kurdish attempt towards independence or taking control of Kirkuk would blow up all of Iraq. However we should all recognize that the Kurds have no choice other than to declare independence.
It would be a total vicious circle for the Kurds to go through a civil war. It won't matter whether U.S. troops are relocated to northern Iraq or pulled out of Iraq completely. In any case, the Kurds would be targeted for their collaboration with the U.S. The U.S. presence in their region means that al-Qaeda would concentrate its attacks on this region. Without the U.S.' presence, al-Qaeda and other Arabs would drag an independent Kurdistan into a civil war.
In the event of a civil war, the only exit for the Kurds is the Turkish border, which has unfortunately, been blocked by the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Kurdish leaders don't seem to understand the fact that they will eventually need Turkey and that the PKK's presence is destroying the bridge between the Iraqi Kurdish region and Turkey which is vitally important to the Kurds in Iraq. The Kurds should wake up to the fact that the U.S. support won't help them; it's only making the Kurds a second Israel, without a harbor, surrounded by hostile neighboring countries. The best option for the Kurds in Iraq is to prevent a civil war. All other options would be a dead end for them once a civil war erupted.
Turkish Weekly
Since the main motivation of the current conflict is to gain power, the most attractive targets are naturally the ethnic elements with the greatest power. From this perspective, a provocative al-Qaeda bombing in northern Iraq, such as the one of al-Askari Mosque, will come as no surprise to us.
Should there be a civil war, two key questions are deeply related to the Kurds' position in it: What would the U.S.' policy be if civil war erupted and how would the Kurds react to it? Would they declare their independence and take over the city of Kirkuk, or do they have any other options? What would the Arabs' attitude towards the Kurds be?
The answer to these questions, unfortunately, is not an optimistic one. The Pentagon's strategy for a possible civil war is based on the idea that U.S. troops won't intervene. Even withdrawing from Iraq until the civil war ended is among the options discussed by the Pentagon. Their plans indicate that in the case of a civil war either the U.S. army will be relocated to northern Iraq, the Kurdish region, or it will pull out of the country.
In either case it's very likely that the Kurds would declare their independence and try to incorporate the city of Kirkuk into their independent Kurdistan. Events over the last two years have shown that once the Kurds seized the city they would implement every possible policy, including ethnic cleansing, to get rid of the other ethnic elements in the city, namely the Arabs and the Turkmens. This would foster additional hostility among the Sunni and the Shiite Arabs towards the Kurds. As both the Sunnis and the Shiites see the Kurds as agents of the U.S., they don't trust them. Moreover, they see Kurdish independence as the establishment of a second Israel in the region, which, of course, isn't an idea welcomed by either side. We all know the Sunnis' position towards Kurdish independence. They won't accept it. Above all, if the Kurds push to take over the city of Kirkuk, the Arabs will fight for it.
The Shiites position, on the other hand, is very close to that of the Sunnis, as radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr stated on Feb. 18 on Aljazeera TV. When he was asked about Kirkuk, al-Sadr replied, "The Kurdistan confederacy was established in the north because of the then dictatorship. When the foreign occupation ends and a democratic state is established in Iraq with freedom of belief and freedom of peoples, there will be no reason to maintain a separate provincial confederacy. And it won't need to demand Kirkuk; the city belongs to all of Iraq and all must equally benefit from it." He further suggested "it be kept as a province and an example of communal harmony, rather than being partitioned by an ethnic group." This view is pretty much shared by all Arabs in Iraq.
Given this complicated situation, any Kurdish attempt towards independence or taking control of Kirkuk would blow up all of Iraq. However we should all recognize that the Kurds have no choice other than to declare independence.
It would be a total vicious circle for the Kurds to go through a civil war. It won't matter whether U.S. troops are relocated to northern Iraq or pulled out of Iraq completely. In any case, the Kurds would be targeted for their collaboration with the U.S. The U.S. presence in their region means that al-Qaeda would concentrate its attacks on this region. Without the U.S.' presence, al-Qaeda and other Arabs would drag an independent Kurdistan into a civil war.
In the event of a civil war, the only exit for the Kurds is the Turkish border, which has unfortunately, been blocked by the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Kurdish leaders don't seem to understand the fact that they will eventually need Turkey and that the PKK's presence is destroying the bridge between the Iraqi Kurdish region and Turkey which is vitally important to the Kurds in Iraq. The Kurds should wake up to the fact that the U.S. support won't help them; it's only making the Kurds a second Israel, without a harbor, surrounded by hostile neighboring countries. The best option for the Kurds in Iraq is to prevent a civil war. All other options would be a dead end for them once a civil war erupted.
Turkish Weekly
posted by madtom at 6:39 PM
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