.Saudis’ Efforts to Swat Rebels From Yemen Risk Inflaming Larger Conflict
BEIRUT, Lebanon — For more than a week, Saudi Arabia has been carrying out a highly unusual military operation on its remote southern border, to punish a band of rebels from neighboring Yemen who crossed over and attacked a Saudi patrol.
On the surface, the operation looks like a great success. The Saudis used fighter jets and an overwhelming ground superiority to flush the rebels from their terrain. But now many analysts say they fear that the offensive could backfire, drawing Saudi Arabia into a quagmire in a mountainous tribal area and possibly even luring foreign fighters to join the rebels.
Worst of all, some say, the border skirmish could lead to the realization of Saudi Arabia’s worst fear: a proxy conflict with its archrival, Iran, on its doorstep.
The rebels, known as Houthis, after their leader’s clan, have long been accused of receiving support from Iran for their struggle against the Yemeni government, though little evidence has been produced.
Now, a confluence of religious and political factors, including the rebels’ Shiite faith and their underdog role, could prod Iran to turn myth into reality, if it has not already done so, analysts say.
“In the beginning, these accusations about Iran’s involvement were a joke,” said Muhammad al-Mutawakel, a professor at Sanaa University in Yemen. “But I’m afraid it will become serious. The Houthis already have weapons, and it is easy for Iran to provide them with the money they need to continue fighting Saudi Arabia and Yemen.”
A battle between the Arab world’s leading Sunni power and Shiite Iran, even at one remove, could significantly elevate sectarian tensions across the region. Iran gained tremendous leverage over the Israeli-Palestinian problem by supporting the militant groups Hezbollah, in Lebanon, and Hamas, in Gaza. Helping the Houthis, another guerrilla group with great staying power, could give them a way to put pressure on Saudi Arabia.
Iran has long denied aiding the Houthis, who have been battling the Yemeni government intermittently for more than five years. On Tuesday, the Iranian foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, affirmed that position, saying no country should “interfere in internal issues” in Yemen.
But in recent months, Iran’s state-owned news media have been covering the Houthis’ struggle against the Yemeni military more intensively and more sympathetically than ever, setting off alarms across the region. Yemeni officials have accused the Houthis of receiving money from Shiite charities in Iran and elsewhere.
Last month, the Yemeni government said it had intercepted an Iranian vessel carrying weapons in the Red Sea near where the Houthis are based. But Yemen has not supplied any evidence to back up that claim.
In any case, the Houthis do not seem to need military supplies from outside the country. They have had no trouble buying or stealing them from Yemen’s military, which has struggled to maintain its morale and discipline in a region torn by tribal allegiances and largely beyond the control of the government.
The Houthis’ decision last week to seize a strategic mountain area on the Saudi border — leading to a firefight in which a Saudi guard was killed — may have been a deliberate ploy to draw a powerful military response and elicit sympathy.
“I think it was calculated,” said Mustafa Alani, a security analyst with the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. “The Houthis are under pressure, and they think bringing the Saudis into the conflict could bring them more attention, and maybe even draw the Iranians in.”
The Houthis, who have a sophisticated communications operation, released a statement saying they had seized the border area, known as Jebel Dukhan, only because the Saudis had been allowing the Yemeni military to use it for attacks on them.
In the past, the Saudis have avoided military force, preferring to use money and relationships with Yemeni tribal leaders to wield influence across the border. The Yemeni government has done the same thing in different ways, often setting tribes against one another or using them (and jihadists) as proxy forces.
But those policies are problematic, too, and appear to have helped create the Houthi conflict in the first place. The Houthis have long complained that the Yemeni government — with encouragement from the Saudis — was marginalizing them in their home region and favoring hard-line Sunni fundamentalists.
The Houthis’ grievances are rooted in religion and social class. The Houthis are Zaydi Muslims, whose beliefs are an offshoot of Shiite Islam. They make up perhaps a third of Yemen’s population and a majority in the north. The Houthis also belong to a subset of Zaydis that ruled northern Yemen for most of a millennium before the republican revolution in 1962. Ever since, Yemen’s insecure rulers have viewed the Zaydi elite with deep suspicion.
The notion that the Houthis are natural religious allies of Iran is misplaced; Zaydism is doctrinally closer to Sunnism than to mainstream Shiism. But a raft of misleading news reports seem to be blurring that distinction, and circumstances may be pushing the Zaydis and Iran together. Or so their enemies fear.
Yemen’s government, which accuses the Houthis of trying to restore the Zaydi imamate that ruled Yemen before 1962, launched a war against the rebels in August, with the goal of wiping them out. It is still possible that with the help of the Saudis and allied tribes, they may achieve that, or something close to it.
The Saudis appear to have won significant victories in the past few days, and on Tuesday, Prince Khaled bin Sultan, the Saudi assistant defense minister, said the rebels “must withdraw dozens of kilometers” inside Yemen before the Saudi offensive would stop.
Yemeni officials have sounded unusually confident notes in recent days, hinting that their own military is closing in on the Houthis from the south.
But the experience of the past five years suggests otherwise. The Houthis started out with perhaps a few hundred fighters, and they have grown and gained allies over the years. The Saudis have enemies in the region, including a Yemen-based branch of Al Qaeda as well as Iran, and experts say if they are not careful, their border war could end up forging some toxic alliances.
“For the Iranians, this could be a strategic investment that would cost little, but possibly have a big reward,” said Mr. Alani, the Dubai-based analyst. “The Houthis know the geography, they know how to do guerrilla warfare, and they have tribal connections. The Iranians will look at it closely.”
NYT
On the surface, the operation looks like a great success. The Saudis used fighter jets and an overwhelming ground superiority to flush the rebels from their terrain. But now many analysts say they fear that the offensive could backfire, drawing Saudi Arabia into a quagmire in a mountainous tribal area and possibly even luring foreign fighters to join the rebels.
Worst of all, some say, the border skirmish could lead to the realization of Saudi Arabia’s worst fear: a proxy conflict with its archrival, Iran, on its doorstep.
The rebels, known as Houthis, after their leader’s clan, have long been accused of receiving support from Iran for their struggle against the Yemeni government, though little evidence has been produced.
Now, a confluence of religious and political factors, including the rebels’ Shiite faith and their underdog role, could prod Iran to turn myth into reality, if it has not already done so, analysts say.
“In the beginning, these accusations about Iran’s involvement were a joke,” said Muhammad al-Mutawakel, a professor at Sanaa University in Yemen. “But I’m afraid it will become serious. The Houthis already have weapons, and it is easy for Iran to provide them with the money they need to continue fighting Saudi Arabia and Yemen.”
A battle between the Arab world’s leading Sunni power and Shiite Iran, even at one remove, could significantly elevate sectarian tensions across the region. Iran gained tremendous leverage over the Israeli-Palestinian problem by supporting the militant groups Hezbollah, in Lebanon, and Hamas, in Gaza. Helping the Houthis, another guerrilla group with great staying power, could give them a way to put pressure on Saudi Arabia.
Iran has long denied aiding the Houthis, who have been battling the Yemeni government intermittently for more than five years. On Tuesday, the Iranian foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, affirmed that position, saying no country should “interfere in internal issues” in Yemen.
But in recent months, Iran’s state-owned news media have been covering the Houthis’ struggle against the Yemeni military more intensively and more sympathetically than ever, setting off alarms across the region. Yemeni officials have accused the Houthis of receiving money from Shiite charities in Iran and elsewhere.
Last month, the Yemeni government said it had intercepted an Iranian vessel carrying weapons in the Red Sea near where the Houthis are based. But Yemen has not supplied any evidence to back up that claim.
In any case, the Houthis do not seem to need military supplies from outside the country. They have had no trouble buying or stealing them from Yemen’s military, which has struggled to maintain its morale and discipline in a region torn by tribal allegiances and largely beyond the control of the government.
The Houthis’ decision last week to seize a strategic mountain area on the Saudi border — leading to a firefight in which a Saudi guard was killed — may have been a deliberate ploy to draw a powerful military response and elicit sympathy.
“I think it was calculated,” said Mustafa Alani, a security analyst with the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. “The Houthis are under pressure, and they think bringing the Saudis into the conflict could bring them more attention, and maybe even draw the Iranians in.”
The Houthis, who have a sophisticated communications operation, released a statement saying they had seized the border area, known as Jebel Dukhan, only because the Saudis had been allowing the Yemeni military to use it for attacks on them.
In the past, the Saudis have avoided military force, preferring to use money and relationships with Yemeni tribal leaders to wield influence across the border. The Yemeni government has done the same thing in different ways, often setting tribes against one another or using them (and jihadists) as proxy forces.
But those policies are problematic, too, and appear to have helped create the Houthi conflict in the first place. The Houthis have long complained that the Yemeni government — with encouragement from the Saudis — was marginalizing them in their home region and favoring hard-line Sunni fundamentalists.
The Houthis’ grievances are rooted in religion and social class. The Houthis are Zaydi Muslims, whose beliefs are an offshoot of Shiite Islam. They make up perhaps a third of Yemen’s population and a majority in the north. The Houthis also belong to a subset of Zaydis that ruled northern Yemen for most of a millennium before the republican revolution in 1962. Ever since, Yemen’s insecure rulers have viewed the Zaydi elite with deep suspicion.
The notion that the Houthis are natural religious allies of Iran is misplaced; Zaydism is doctrinally closer to Sunnism than to mainstream Shiism. But a raft of misleading news reports seem to be blurring that distinction, and circumstances may be pushing the Zaydis and Iran together. Or so their enemies fear.
Yemen’s government, which accuses the Houthis of trying to restore the Zaydi imamate that ruled Yemen before 1962, launched a war against the rebels in August, with the goal of wiping them out. It is still possible that with the help of the Saudis and allied tribes, they may achieve that, or something close to it.
The Saudis appear to have won significant victories in the past few days, and on Tuesday, Prince Khaled bin Sultan, the Saudi assistant defense minister, said the rebels “must withdraw dozens of kilometers” inside Yemen before the Saudi offensive would stop.
Yemeni officials have sounded unusually confident notes in recent days, hinting that their own military is closing in on the Houthis from the south.
But the experience of the past five years suggests otherwise. The Houthis started out with perhaps a few hundred fighters, and they have grown and gained allies over the years. The Saudis have enemies in the region, including a Yemen-based branch of Al Qaeda as well as Iran, and experts say if they are not careful, their border war could end up forging some toxic alliances.
“For the Iranians, this could be a strategic investment that would cost little, but possibly have a big reward,” said Mr. Alani, the Dubai-based analyst. “The Houthis know the geography, they know how to do guerrilla warfare, and they have tribal connections. The Iranians will look at it closely.”
NYT
posted by madtom at 12:12 AM
1 Comments:
I think the larger risk of inflaming a wider conflict is Iran and their acquisition of nuclear weapons. This is just a warm up for the main event, maybe a test to see how ready the Saudis are to to something about that. Or, maybe the Saudis are trying to goad Iran into moving before they are ready. If so, I doubt Iran will take the bait. I hope we have people stirring the pot because I see it as a likely net plus, either way.
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