.Analysis: Arabs between Israel and Iran
AMMAN, Jordan (UPI) -- The emergence of Iran`s power in the region has trapped most Arab regimes between a rock and a hard place as they seek to avoid choosing between two evils: Israel and Iran.
So far, pro-Western Arab governments have said little about Tehran`s nuclear program as they watch its political influence spreading across the region. After all, Iran is a Muslim country seeking to end Israel`s technological monopoly in the region and standing up to Western pressure -- a defiance lacking in Arab countries since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq toppled Saddam Hussein`s regime in April 2003.
Between the Jewish state`s nuclear technology, and reports of its owning hundreds of atomic warheads, and Persian Iran`s own nuclear technological progress that might build atomic weapons, Arab countries find themselves threatened from two sides.
Although they will not say it publicly, it`s not Israel`s reported nuclear and conventional arsenal that scares these Arab governments, most of which have shown desire for peace with Israel, but Iran`s military and political capabilities.
Independent Arab analysts say Arab governments, none of which have been freely elected, fear Tehran because it threatens their own regimes` stability more than Israel does, although they have maintained cordial relations with Iran.
Middle East pundits warn against betting on Iran`s cultural and religious identity as a deterrent from succeeding in winning sympathy from the populations in the overwhelming Sunni Arab region.
They say that being non-Arab and Shiite does not necessarily mean Iran will not find support from the Arab masses, if only for defying the West in advancing its nuclear technology, supporting anti-Israeli resistance movements in Lebanon and Palestine and creating a balance of power with Israel.
Raising Iran`s popularity among the Arab people more recently were the Iranian-supplied rockets that Lebanon`s Shiite Hezbollah guerillas fired persistently on northern Israel and the weapons that resisted Israeli incursions into southern Lebanon during the July 12-Aug. 14 war.
It is also probably Iranian cash that Hezbollah is disbursing to compensate thousands of Lebanese families who lost their homes in the Israeli bombardment of southern Lebanese towns and Beirut`s southern suburbs.
In addition, Iran is said to be helping the elected Islamic Hamas government in the Palestinian territories when the West imposed economic sanctions on the Palestinian Authority and the Arab countries virtually abandoned the Palestinians.
Despite the historical distrust between Arabs and Persians, analysts say Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad`s defiant and fiery speeches against Israel and U.S. foreign policy, widely seen as favorable for Israel and against Arabs and Muslims, are finding their way into the hearts of the Arab masses as they find common political, rather than ideological, positions.
According to a recent report by London`s Royal Institute of International Affairs, an independent think-tank, Ahmedinejad`s rhetoric and defiance of the United States 'have not helped soothe Arab leaders` concerns over his particular brand of revolutionary revanchism, which they fear may infect their own populations, with serious consequences for the domestic stability of the pro-Western Gulf Arab states.' It added that the Iranian leader`s statements have made him an 'increasingly popular symbol of resistance in the Arab street.'
Another worrying factor of Iran`s growing power in the Arab world, for the Western-allied regimes, is Tehran`s clear influence in Iraq, where the Iranian-allied Shiite majority is now at the helm of power that ironically emerged under U.S. occupation.
The leaders of Jordan and Egypt, the only two Arab countries that signed peace treaties with Israel, and Saudi Arabia have publicly warned against a rising Shiite power with a 'Shiite crescent' extending from Iran and Iraq through Syria and Lebanon on the Mediterranean.
Fear of an Iranian-brand Islamic revolution spreading across the region, where there are substantial Shiite minorities in the Arab Gulf states, started with Iran`s own revolution that ousted the Shah in 1979. That was one of the reasons why the Arab countries supported Iraq during the bloody 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.
With Iran`s significant influence in today`s Iraq, its rising support in the Arab street in the aftermath of the Israeli war on Hezbollah and now Iran`s nuclear program, Arab leaders are exercising more caution in dealing with Tehran.
Careful not to appear as if favoring Israel`s nuclear capabilities over Iran`s, Western-allied Arab governments have maintained that the Islamic Republic has the right to nuclear technology so long as it`s peaceful -- which Iran maintains -- and insist the real threat to the Arabs is Israel`s nuclear capabilities and its refusal to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Analysts say the Arabs have no other choice but to adopt such a neutral position as they watch Iran`s nuclear crisis with the United States and the West unfold.
They merely hope that whatever happens will not entail a military confrontation that would find the Arab countries in the midst of a possibly devastating war threatening the very existence of the Arab order.
M&C
I hope Truth about Iraqis doesn't censer my last comment, as I was jut say just that.
So far, pro-Western Arab governments have said little about Tehran`s nuclear program as they watch its political influence spreading across the region. After all, Iran is a Muslim country seeking to end Israel`s technological monopoly in the region and standing up to Western pressure -- a defiance lacking in Arab countries since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq toppled Saddam Hussein`s regime in April 2003.
Between the Jewish state`s nuclear technology, and reports of its owning hundreds of atomic warheads, and Persian Iran`s own nuclear technological progress that might build atomic weapons, Arab countries find themselves threatened from two sides.
Although they will not say it publicly, it`s not Israel`s reported nuclear and conventional arsenal that scares these Arab governments, most of which have shown desire for peace with Israel, but Iran`s military and political capabilities.
Independent Arab analysts say Arab governments, none of which have been freely elected, fear Tehran because it threatens their own regimes` stability more than Israel does, although they have maintained cordial relations with Iran.
Middle East pundits warn against betting on Iran`s cultural and religious identity as a deterrent from succeeding in winning sympathy from the populations in the overwhelming Sunni Arab region.
They say that being non-Arab and Shiite does not necessarily mean Iran will not find support from the Arab masses, if only for defying the West in advancing its nuclear technology, supporting anti-Israeli resistance movements in Lebanon and Palestine and creating a balance of power with Israel.
Raising Iran`s popularity among the Arab people more recently were the Iranian-supplied rockets that Lebanon`s Shiite Hezbollah guerillas fired persistently on northern Israel and the weapons that resisted Israeli incursions into southern Lebanon during the July 12-Aug. 14 war.
It is also probably Iranian cash that Hezbollah is disbursing to compensate thousands of Lebanese families who lost their homes in the Israeli bombardment of southern Lebanese towns and Beirut`s southern suburbs.
In addition, Iran is said to be helping the elected Islamic Hamas government in the Palestinian territories when the West imposed economic sanctions on the Palestinian Authority and the Arab countries virtually abandoned the Palestinians.
Despite the historical distrust between Arabs and Persians, analysts say Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad`s defiant and fiery speeches against Israel and U.S. foreign policy, widely seen as favorable for Israel and against Arabs and Muslims, are finding their way into the hearts of the Arab masses as they find common political, rather than ideological, positions.
According to a recent report by London`s Royal Institute of International Affairs, an independent think-tank, Ahmedinejad`s rhetoric and defiance of the United States 'have not helped soothe Arab leaders` concerns over his particular brand of revolutionary revanchism, which they fear may infect their own populations, with serious consequences for the domestic stability of the pro-Western Gulf Arab states.' It added that the Iranian leader`s statements have made him an 'increasingly popular symbol of resistance in the Arab street.'
Another worrying factor of Iran`s growing power in the Arab world, for the Western-allied regimes, is Tehran`s clear influence in Iraq, where the Iranian-allied Shiite majority is now at the helm of power that ironically emerged under U.S. occupation.
The leaders of Jordan and Egypt, the only two Arab countries that signed peace treaties with Israel, and Saudi Arabia have publicly warned against a rising Shiite power with a 'Shiite crescent' extending from Iran and Iraq through Syria and Lebanon on the Mediterranean.
Fear of an Iranian-brand Islamic revolution spreading across the region, where there are substantial Shiite minorities in the Arab Gulf states, started with Iran`s own revolution that ousted the Shah in 1979. That was one of the reasons why the Arab countries supported Iraq during the bloody 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.
With Iran`s significant influence in today`s Iraq, its rising support in the Arab street in the aftermath of the Israeli war on Hezbollah and now Iran`s nuclear program, Arab leaders are exercising more caution in dealing with Tehran.
Careful not to appear as if favoring Israel`s nuclear capabilities over Iran`s, Western-allied Arab governments have maintained that the Islamic Republic has the right to nuclear technology so long as it`s peaceful -- which Iran maintains -- and insist the real threat to the Arabs is Israel`s nuclear capabilities and its refusal to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Analysts say the Arabs have no other choice but to adopt such a neutral position as they watch Iran`s nuclear crisis with the United States and the West unfold.
They merely hope that whatever happens will not entail a military confrontation that would find the Arab countries in the midst of a possibly devastating war threatening the very existence of the Arab order.
M&C
I hope Truth about Iraqis doesn't censer my last comment, as I was jut say just that.
posted by madtom at 12:08 AM
4 Comments:
They are in a difficult position, Iran is like the bully on the playground right now, getting away with stuff because of tolerant adults, but when they actually do something, they ARE going to get slapped down hard. And I will jump for joy.
Anonymous Jump...Remember white men can't do that.
They appear to be doing everything in their power to alienate themselves.
It would be sort of funny to watch the "Arab masses" rise, and in Iran's favor at that, the Arab masses have not risen much of late or ever, Arab masses seem to follow the leaders, and it's the leaders you have to "rise".
By the way welcome to my little blog.
Who would have guessed a place like Fiji would have so many complications and problems.
You've forever ruined my mental picture of a bunch of friendly natives running naked on the beach.
Damn! isn't anything sacred anymore.
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