.Iraq Qaeda Chief Seems to Pursue a Lower Profile
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian terrorist and the head of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, has sharply lowered his profile in recent months, and his group claims to have submitted itself to the leadership of an Iraqi.
In postings on Web sites used by jihadi groups, Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, the terrorist network's arm in Iraq, claims to have joined with five other guerrilla groups to form the Mujahedeen Shura, or Council of Holy Warriors. The new group, whose formation was announced in January, is said to be headed by an Iraqi named Abdullah Rashid al-Baghdadi. Since then, Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia has stopped issuing its own proclamations.
The Mujahedeen Shura, which continues to call for attacks against American and Iraqi forces, has stopped taking responsibility for large-scale suicide attacks against civilians, and it has toned down its fierce verbal attacks against Iraq's Shiite majority.
Mr. Zarqawi's group also appears to have stopped, at least for now, the practice of beheading its captives. Since last summer, the group has begun to carry out attacks outside Iraq.
The activities seem to follow closely the advice in a letter believed to have been written last year by Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al Qaeda's second in command.
Previously, Mr. Zarqawi's group celebrated large-scale civilian massacres, and often made videos of the attacks and of beheadings and posted the videos on jihadi Web sites. Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, which is dominated by followers of Islam's Sunni sect, also boasted of the mass killing of Shiite civilians, whom it labeled derogatorily as "converters."
While it is impossible to verify the claims on the Web sites, experts believe it significant that Mr. Zarqawi apparently feels the need to send such signals, which offer clues about what he and other senior jihadi leaders might be thinking and doing.
Since the announcement of the Mujahedeen Shura in January, Mr. Zarqawi has stayed largely out of view. His last public statement, released a few days before the announcement, ranted in typical fashion against Americans and Jews but gave no sign that changes were afoot.
American and Iraqi officials, as well as independent terrorism experts, are divided on the signals from Al Qaeda. Most believe that Mr. Zarqawi is alive, in Iraq, and still in charge of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. They say the group remains the leading suspect in the Feb. 22 attack against the Shiite shrine in Samarra, which set off a wave of sectarian violence. No group has taken responsibility for that attack.
Sectarian attacks have helped bring Iraq to the brink of full-scale civil war. A document obtained by the Americans in January 2004, and believed to have been written by Mr. Zarqawi, calls for attacks on Shiites in order to bring about a sectarian bloodbath.
American and Iraqi officials concede that they know little about the Mujahedeen Shura or of Mr. Baghdadi or, indeed, whether they exist at all. The officials say the proclamations by Al Qaeda and the Mujahedeen Shura, as well as the claim that an Iraqi is in charge, are probably ploys to give the illusion of changes that have not taken place.
"Propaganda is a critical component of his efforts, and that's what's involved here," said an American intelligence official. "It's a shift in tactics, not a real change."
In the letter thought to have been written by Mr. Zawahiri, an Egyptian physician believed to be hiding along the mountainous border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, Mr. Zarqawi was told that he needed to cultivate local support in Iraq to ensure the survival of his movement. The letter was captured by the Americans last summer.
The letter suggested a role for a council that would unite the various insurgent groups and help lay the political groundwork for the day the Americans depart.
It also questioned Mr. Zarqawi's emphasis on killing Shiites, suggesting that such killings alienated Iraqis and detracted from the larger goal of driving out the Americans. For the same reasons, the letter said, it was not necessary to cut off the heads of captives. "We can kill the captives by bullet," the letter said.
The letter also called for Mr. Zarqawi to "extend the jihad to secular countries neighboring Iraq." In recent months, Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia has taken responsibility for a number of attacks outside the country, including the suicide bombing of three hotels in Amman, Jordan, in November, which killed more than 57 people. The group has also said it fired rockets from Lebanon into Israel last December, and a pair of missiles at American naval vessels in Aqaba, Jordan, last August.
"Zarqawi wanted to hand over Al Qaeda to the Iraqis so he could move on to the next phase of jihad," said Rita Katz, the director of the SITE Institute, which tracks violent Islamist groups. Ms. Katz recently made such an argument in an opinion article in The Boston Globe.
Bruce Hoffman, a terrorist expert at the Rand Corporation's Washington office, said he believed that the Mujahedeen Shura and Mr. Baghdadi were real, but was unconvinced that Mr. Zarqawi had ceded control of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. Having brought the country to the brink of civil war, Mr. Zarqawi may have decided that it was a good time to step back as events in Iraq unfold, Mr. Hoffman said, "like a poker player."
There are other reasons why Mr. Zarqawi might want to take a less prominent role in Iraq. As a Jordanian, Mr. Zarqawi is a foreigner in Iraq, where family and blood lines count for a lot. In recent months, evidence has surfaced that Iraqi guerrillas resent the dominance of foreigners in the insurgency.
In addition, there have been growing indications that the large-scale suicide bombings directed at civilians were alienating Arab backers outside the country as well as ordinary Iraqis. Mr. Zarqawi is believed to depend heavily on money provided by Arabs from outside of Iraq.
The suicide attacks on the three Jordanian hotels set off a wave of popular anger so furious that Mr. Zarqawi released an audio tape to explain his actions. Mr. Zarqawi did not apologize for the attacks — far from it — but he was clearly stunned by the vehemence of the reaction. "As for those Muslims who were killed," Mr. Zarqawi said on the tape, "we have not thought for even one moment about targeting them, even if they are sinful people."
Ms. Katz, the director of SITE, which provided the translations of his statements, said that even if he had stepped back, Mr. Zarqawi was probably still the dominant force in Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia.
Mr. Zarqawi has long made it clear that he sees Iraq as a stepping stone to the larger goal of overthrowing what he believes to be corrupt and secular regimes across the Arab world and re-establishing the Islamic Caliphate that reigned over the Middle East for centuries.
Whatever Mr. Zarqawi is up to, the successor organization, the Mujahedeen Shura, has lost no vehemence. In one of its most recent communiqués, it celebrated an attack on an American Humvee it claimed to have carried out this week in Miqadadiya, Iraq.
"A car bomb was detonated on a Crusader support patrol, resulting in the destruction of the Humvee and all who were in it," the statement said. "Thanks unto God."
NYTimes
In postings on Web sites used by jihadi groups, Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, the terrorist network's arm in Iraq, claims to have joined with five other guerrilla groups to form the Mujahedeen Shura, or Council of Holy Warriors. The new group, whose formation was announced in January, is said to be headed by an Iraqi named Abdullah Rashid al-Baghdadi. Since then, Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia has stopped issuing its own proclamations.
The Mujahedeen Shura, which continues to call for attacks against American and Iraqi forces, has stopped taking responsibility for large-scale suicide attacks against civilians, and it has toned down its fierce verbal attacks against Iraq's Shiite majority.
Mr. Zarqawi's group also appears to have stopped, at least for now, the practice of beheading its captives. Since last summer, the group has begun to carry out attacks outside Iraq.
The activities seem to follow closely the advice in a letter believed to have been written last year by Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al Qaeda's second in command.
Previously, Mr. Zarqawi's group celebrated large-scale civilian massacres, and often made videos of the attacks and of beheadings and posted the videos on jihadi Web sites. Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, which is dominated by followers of Islam's Sunni sect, also boasted of the mass killing of Shiite civilians, whom it labeled derogatorily as "converters."
While it is impossible to verify the claims on the Web sites, experts believe it significant that Mr. Zarqawi apparently feels the need to send such signals, which offer clues about what he and other senior jihadi leaders might be thinking and doing.
Since the announcement of the Mujahedeen Shura in January, Mr. Zarqawi has stayed largely out of view. His last public statement, released a few days before the announcement, ranted in typical fashion against Americans and Jews but gave no sign that changes were afoot.
American and Iraqi officials, as well as independent terrorism experts, are divided on the signals from Al Qaeda. Most believe that Mr. Zarqawi is alive, in Iraq, and still in charge of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. They say the group remains the leading suspect in the Feb. 22 attack against the Shiite shrine in Samarra, which set off a wave of sectarian violence. No group has taken responsibility for that attack.
Sectarian attacks have helped bring Iraq to the brink of full-scale civil war. A document obtained by the Americans in January 2004, and believed to have been written by Mr. Zarqawi, calls for attacks on Shiites in order to bring about a sectarian bloodbath.
American and Iraqi officials concede that they know little about the Mujahedeen Shura or of Mr. Baghdadi or, indeed, whether they exist at all. The officials say the proclamations by Al Qaeda and the Mujahedeen Shura, as well as the claim that an Iraqi is in charge, are probably ploys to give the illusion of changes that have not taken place.
"Propaganda is a critical component of his efforts, and that's what's involved here," said an American intelligence official. "It's a shift in tactics, not a real change."
In the letter thought to have been written by Mr. Zawahiri, an Egyptian physician believed to be hiding along the mountainous border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, Mr. Zarqawi was told that he needed to cultivate local support in Iraq to ensure the survival of his movement. The letter was captured by the Americans last summer.
The letter suggested a role for a council that would unite the various insurgent groups and help lay the political groundwork for the day the Americans depart.
It also questioned Mr. Zarqawi's emphasis on killing Shiites, suggesting that such killings alienated Iraqis and detracted from the larger goal of driving out the Americans. For the same reasons, the letter said, it was not necessary to cut off the heads of captives. "We can kill the captives by bullet," the letter said.
The letter also called for Mr. Zarqawi to "extend the jihad to secular countries neighboring Iraq." In recent months, Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia has taken responsibility for a number of attacks outside the country, including the suicide bombing of three hotels in Amman, Jordan, in November, which killed more than 57 people. The group has also said it fired rockets from Lebanon into Israel last December, and a pair of missiles at American naval vessels in Aqaba, Jordan, last August.
"Zarqawi wanted to hand over Al Qaeda to the Iraqis so he could move on to the next phase of jihad," said Rita Katz, the director of the SITE Institute, which tracks violent Islamist groups. Ms. Katz recently made such an argument in an opinion article in The Boston Globe.
Bruce Hoffman, a terrorist expert at the Rand Corporation's Washington office, said he believed that the Mujahedeen Shura and Mr. Baghdadi were real, but was unconvinced that Mr. Zarqawi had ceded control of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. Having brought the country to the brink of civil war, Mr. Zarqawi may have decided that it was a good time to step back as events in Iraq unfold, Mr. Hoffman said, "like a poker player."
There are other reasons why Mr. Zarqawi might want to take a less prominent role in Iraq. As a Jordanian, Mr. Zarqawi is a foreigner in Iraq, where family and blood lines count for a lot. In recent months, evidence has surfaced that Iraqi guerrillas resent the dominance of foreigners in the insurgency.
In addition, there have been growing indications that the large-scale suicide bombings directed at civilians were alienating Arab backers outside the country as well as ordinary Iraqis. Mr. Zarqawi is believed to depend heavily on money provided by Arabs from outside of Iraq.
The suicide attacks on the three Jordanian hotels set off a wave of popular anger so furious that Mr. Zarqawi released an audio tape to explain his actions. Mr. Zarqawi did not apologize for the attacks — far from it — but he was clearly stunned by the vehemence of the reaction. "As for those Muslims who were killed," Mr. Zarqawi said on the tape, "we have not thought for even one moment about targeting them, even if they are sinful people."
Ms. Katz, the director of SITE, which provided the translations of his statements, said that even if he had stepped back, Mr. Zarqawi was probably still the dominant force in Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia.
Mr. Zarqawi has long made it clear that he sees Iraq as a stepping stone to the larger goal of overthrowing what he believes to be corrupt and secular regimes across the Arab world and re-establishing the Islamic Caliphate that reigned over the Middle East for centuries.
Whatever Mr. Zarqawi is up to, the successor organization, the Mujahedeen Shura, has lost no vehemence. In one of its most recent communiqués, it celebrated an attack on an American Humvee it claimed to have carried out this week in Miqadadiya, Iraq.
"A car bomb was detonated on a Crusader support patrol, resulting in the destruction of the Humvee and all who were in it," the statement said. "Thanks unto God."
NYTimes
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