Sunday, May 22, 2011

Where There Is Smoke

"
In the Helmand Province, this year’s fighting season has started off with a whimper. On May Day (as predicted) the only action was in Paktika Province where a child suicide bomber violated the latest Taliban public announcement by blowing himself up in a police station. The Taliban had just announced they would no longer allow beardless boys into their ranks and, although the Pashtun are a hirsute people, I’m not aware of any 12 year olds who have begun to cultivate beards. After that, the Taliban launched a two day siege in Kandahar which accomplished little; they couldn’t manage to inflict any casualties on ISAF or the Afghan security forces.

We have never seen this before. The poppy harvest is in (for the most part) the weather is warming up, it is time for the fighting to start but across the region the Taliban remains inactive. Hat tip to Sami the Finn at Indicum Consulting for the stats

Defeating the Taliban in battle in downtown Kandahar is not a victory for the good guys because of the fact they were fighting in downtown Kandahar. The people of Kandahar are the prize for both ISAF and the Taliban; the real estate is meaningless, so the fact that the Taliban even mounted this operation is bad news. There are additional reports that groups of Taliban fighters had “foreigners” embedded in them which may, or may not be bad news."
FRI

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