.US-led forces start push to secure Kandahar
AS THE American-led coalition launches its most critical military operation of the nine-year war in Afghanistan, doubts are growing about whether the US and its allies can contain the Taliban-led insurgency and prevent the country from reverting to an al-Qaeda sanctuary or erupting in civil war.
The operation aims to secure Kandahar, the financial, trade and political hub of southern Afghanistan and the seat of Taliban rule of Afghanistan until the 2001 US invasion.
US and Afghan troops already have made the first moves to flush the Taliban from their strongholds in the lush Arghandab Valley and other districts around Kandahar, but a host of problems plague the long-delayed initiative and the larger war effort. US troops are fanning out across Kandahar to train Afghan police as part of a counter-insurgency plan refined by US Army General David Petraeus, the newly named commander of all allied forces, that will focus more on creating a respected government instead of routing insurgents inside the city.
But faced with the reality that its counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan has had little success so far, the Obama administration is focusing on hunting down insurgents in a shift that could change the nature of the war and potentially hasten a political settlement with the Taliban.
Based on the US military experience in Iraq as well as Afghanistan, it is not clear that killing enemy fighters is sufficient by itself to cripple an insurgency.
US intelligence reporting has recently revealed growing examples of Taliban fighters who are fearful of moving into higher-level command positions because of these lethal operations, according to a senior American military officer.
Judging that they have gained some leverage over the Taliban, US officials are now debating when to try to bring them to the negotiating table to end the fighting. Rattling the Taliban, officials said, may open the door to reconciling with them more quickly, even if the officials caution that the outreach is still deeply uncertain.
The operation to secure Kandahar comes as Dutch military command in Oruzgan was formally handed over to the US and Australia after the Netherlands ended its four-year commitment.
The Dutch mission, known for its 3D approach of defence, development and diplomacy, has been described by NATO secretary-general Anders Fogh Rasmussen as ''the benchmark for others'', and by Mr Obama as ''one of the most outstanding'' in Afghanistan.
In the US, a Gallup poll published last month found that 60 per cent of Americans think things are going badly. That was before the massive leak of secret US military reports on WikiLeaks, which drove home what an uphill struggle Afghanistan has been.
A major obstacle in Kandahar - and across Afghanistan - is a lack of competent and honest administrators and police who can win the loyalty of the city's estimated 800,000 people and turn them against local warlords and the insurgents.
With summer advancing and the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan looming, Western strategists are lowering expectations for a decisive turnaround before year's end.
If all goes as planned, Afghan and American forces hope to control most of the Arghandab Valley by the start of Ramadan next week.
The Age
The operation aims to secure Kandahar, the financial, trade and political hub of southern Afghanistan and the seat of Taliban rule of Afghanistan until the 2001 US invasion.
US and Afghan troops already have made the first moves to flush the Taliban from their strongholds in the lush Arghandab Valley and other districts around Kandahar, but a host of problems plague the long-delayed initiative and the larger war effort. US troops are fanning out across Kandahar to train Afghan police as part of a counter-insurgency plan refined by US Army General David Petraeus, the newly named commander of all allied forces, that will focus more on creating a respected government instead of routing insurgents inside the city.
But faced with the reality that its counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan has had little success so far, the Obama administration is focusing on hunting down insurgents in a shift that could change the nature of the war and potentially hasten a political settlement with the Taliban.
Based on the US military experience in Iraq as well as Afghanistan, it is not clear that killing enemy fighters is sufficient by itself to cripple an insurgency.
US intelligence reporting has recently revealed growing examples of Taliban fighters who are fearful of moving into higher-level command positions because of these lethal operations, according to a senior American military officer.
Judging that they have gained some leverage over the Taliban, US officials are now debating when to try to bring them to the negotiating table to end the fighting. Rattling the Taliban, officials said, may open the door to reconciling with them more quickly, even if the officials caution that the outreach is still deeply uncertain.
The operation to secure Kandahar comes as Dutch military command in Oruzgan was formally handed over to the US and Australia after the Netherlands ended its four-year commitment.
The Dutch mission, known for its 3D approach of defence, development and diplomacy, has been described by NATO secretary-general Anders Fogh Rasmussen as ''the benchmark for others'', and by Mr Obama as ''one of the most outstanding'' in Afghanistan.
In the US, a Gallup poll published last month found that 60 per cent of Americans think things are going badly. That was before the massive leak of secret US military reports on WikiLeaks, which drove home what an uphill struggle Afghanistan has been.
A major obstacle in Kandahar - and across Afghanistan - is a lack of competent and honest administrators and police who can win the loyalty of the city's estimated 800,000 people and turn them against local warlords and the insurgents.
With summer advancing and the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan looming, Western strategists are lowering expectations for a decisive turnaround before year's end.
If all goes as planned, Afghan and American forces hope to control most of the Arghandab Valley by the start of Ramadan next week.
The Age
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