.Daniel Pipes: Iraq's Cosmetic Election
(Mister Ghost says: Can't disagree with Daniel - beware of the Democracy Pimps. )
Iraq's Cosmetic Election
by Daniel Pipes
March 9, 2010
updated Apr 3, 2010
Cross-posted from National Review Online
"It takes a cynical mind not to share in the achievement of Iraq's national elections." So writes the Wall Street Journal editorial board today. I'm no cynic, but my mood about Iraq could variously be described as depressed, despairing, despondent, dejected, pessimistic, melancholic, and gloomy.
 Cosmetic inking for a cosmetic election; this Iraqi girl inked her finger, indicating she voted, even though she is too young to vote. |
Tehran has aspired to seize effective control of Iraq since the U.S.-led overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003. With many levers at hand, from mosques to schools to militias to politicians, the Iranian despots are well placed to inherit the country.
The end of U.S. backing looms. Indeed, Barack Obama responded to the well-run elections by declaring a hope that U.S. troops can leave Iraq months earlier than planned. As the American era closes, the Iranian one opens. In a year or two, the current elections will be looked back on as a cosmetic episode that somehow deceived otherwise savvy observers. .
 "Newsweek" shares in the optimism over Iraqi elections. |
Apr. 1, 2010 update: Confirmation of Iran's growing political role comes today from Rod Nordland in the New York Times, "Iran Plays Host to Delegations After Iraq Elections."
Iran may seem an unlikely place to turn for guidance when it comes to putting together a democratic government, but that is exactly what most of Iraq's political class did immediately after last month's parliamentary elections. The ink was hardly dry on the polling results when three of the four major political alliances rushed delegations off to Tehran. Yet none of them sent anyone to the United States Embassy here, let alone to Washington.
Nor has Washington tried to intervene. Even Ayad Allawi, the secular candidate whose Iraqiya coalition won the most seats — and renounced Iranian support in seeking a parliamentary majority — has heard nothing from the Americans. "Maybe they don't like my face, I don't know," he joked, then added more seriously, "I think they don't want to be associated with any visit, so they wouldn't be seen as siding with one against the other."
The Iranians, however, have shown no such qualms, publicly urging the Shiite religious parties to bury their differences so they can use their superior numbers to choose the next prime minister. Their openness, and Washington's reticence, is a measure of the changed political dynamic in Iraq. Even though more than 90,000 American troops remain in Iraq, no one seriously doubts they are leaving, taking a slice of America's political influence with them.
Labels: American Corporations shut out of Iraq, Daniel Pipes, Democracy in Iraq, Democracy Pimps, Iranian hegemony, Iraqi Elections
posted by Mister Ghost at 12:00 AM
13 Comments:
It sounds like the Iraqi people fail to appreciate Liberty. I wonder why that is?
Oh, I think a percentage of them do, but... Iraq has become a much more homogeneous Islamic state.
At the beginning of the 20th century, one-third of Baghdad was Jewish - now, there are single digit numbers of Iraqi Jews in Baghdad. At the beginning of the 20th century, 20 percent of the Middle East was Christian - at the beginning of the 21st century, 5 percent of the Middle East is Christian.
Before Saddam was removed, Christians accounted for 30 percent of the Iraqi professional class.
Now, after the war, likely 70 percent of Christians have left or been displaced.
Iraq is firmly in the grasp of Shia fundamentalists, and corruptocrat Kurds, and of course Islam being enshrined in the Constitution.
Liberty to a large percentage of Iraqis is the ability to practice Shiism, not our American version of liberty or even the European egalite.
Well if you guys thought Iraqis could tell liberty from hole in the ground, I have bridges for sale. They need shepherding, just not so much hand holding that they forget to learn to walk.. I have very little hope O will care, chances are he's more sympathetic to the Sunni's so there might be a small chance if they do take over power now that he might help them stabilizes the country. If the Shi'a stay in power O will be more than happy to watch it all burn to the ground to he can blame Bush for the disaster...Not to mention piss off the Chinese and start a trade war, that way it you wont be able to blame O for protectionism.
oh, you know me. I'm convinced that about one third of a given population truly desires and thrives in a culture where liberty is offered. Fewer, still, are willing to lay down their possessions and lives to achieve it. In Iraq, the one third just wanted the chance to get the hell out of Dodge and use the US as their rationale for their cowardice. And really, the place sucks from all accounts I've heard. I know that isn't politically correct, but people with money, skills and ambition to do anything more than be the new tyrants living off the sheep have left town, which I take as a referendum on the question. To truly impose liberty, we needed to do a Japan style annihilation and offer a hand up when the failed culture was abandoned in desperation. And should have prevented as many from leaving as was possible while getting the oil fields producing ASAP. The money would have persuaded more to stay in their 'beloved' Iraq.
So the Japan model is the only one? Nuke'm all and let god sort them out.
After all these years of war...I sort of wonder, which is the more humane war...
That people left Iraq is not news, more people have left Cuba, and we have not dropped a bomb in 60 years.
We Cubans should get in line and get ours with all this new found empathy towards exiles. We have lots of them.
Mad Tom,
Shepherding?
The US has shepherded the Iraqis for the last six years.
You can't shepherd a flock of wolves. )))
LOL, it's still all going to burn down any ways, so save the billion dollars a day and get the American troops out.
The Big Problems:
1) Baghdad, traditional capital of the Sunna Caliphate, in the hands of those Shia heretic dogs now. That is unacceptable to the Sunni, who are out of power and out of the oil wealth.
2) The Shia after being persecuted by the Sunni now have political power and control of southern oil wealth. They aren't going to power share.
3) The Kurds after being persecuted, now have control of the northern oil wealth and quasi-independence from those hated Arabs - they aren't going to power share.
4) "The most intractable problem facing democratic reform in Iraq (or anywhere else in the Muslim world) is how to reconcile that founding principle of democracy -- the separation of church and state -- with Islamic law, which is predicated on the inseparable union of religious and political power."
'So the Japan model is the only one? Nuke'm all and let god sort them out.'
Pending future events that become more unlikely with every passing day---Yes. I've been waiting to be proven wrong since the first week of the invasion and almost believed I could be wrong for a few moments here and there, but I shouldn't have doubted myself. We're just surrendering in really slow motion.
Well if we take all the troops out, and the place goes to hell in a hand basket, how much will that cost?
Yeah everybody hate the Shi'a, like the Sunni are so great and have done such a great job across the M.E. they deserve our undivided loyalty.
The Kurds should not give in an inch. Why should they, we wouldn't.
Islam can be amended easier than the next Fatawa. All you need is control over who appoints the next clerics
Didn't I hear O talking about staying in Afghanistan for the long run? If you had to bet which place has a better chance of getting on the right path, Iraq, or Afghanistan, which would you put your money on? I mean we might be able to occupy Afghanistan indefinitely, but who would really want too...
LOL, Mad Tom,
We've had troops there for the last six years and it's been hell.
Troops or no troops, it's going Lebanon, so why waste American resources?
The same for Afghanistan.
Re-allocate the resources to exposing Jihadism in the West, safeguarding American borders, limiting Muslim immigration to the West...
Reject the safe haven myth - because Jihadism is everywhere - tying down troops in the process of nation building in Muslim countries is flawed, too costly,
and with poor results.
As far as fatwas, well the Russians in Central Asia used to do that by installing House Mullahs - that's after they conquered the various countries - no hearts and minds for them, and eliminated and removed the fundamentalists and gave equality to most of the female populace...
The US in Iraq would have had to take a neo-colonialist approach to
install its favored religious leaders.
As regards the Shia, they are actually more doctrinal than the Sunni in Iraq... witness Sistani's bad Najis: infidels, etc... more fundamentalism isn't the way to go. )))
LOL, every Zero statement comes with a qualifier and expiration date - why would you believe anything he says?
Iraq is saner, less tribal and wealthier than Afghanistan, so they
will do better in the long run - it's just history, Islam and Arab culture will see that it's never going to be a successful democracy.
It was pretty hellish watching saddams troops on the Saudi boarder
"Re-allocate the resources to exposing Jihadism in the West, safeguarding American borders, limiting Muslim immigration to the West..."
That's a big problem for us, "Jihadism" is legal here in the US, but limiting Muslim immigration isn't.
"nation building in Muslim countries"
Outside of Nuke'm all, what options are there. Just keep supporting "friendly" regimes, no matter what they do, or how they hold power? Do I really hear you saying that?
Well I don't know, given the opportunity a very large center voted in Iraq for the center. I don't see hordes of fundies breaching the walls. Will they ever stand and fight, who knows.
I do know one thing, that large group of centrist Iraqis now know they are a big majority, which I bet was as big a surprise to them as it was to us....that in itself was something worth fighting for. It has created and instant target audience almost like magic out of thin air.
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