.Iraqi Elections – The View From Kurdistan
ERBIL, Iraq — A senior Kurdish leader here told me recently that anyone who aspired to become the next prime minister of Iraq needed the blessing of the Kurds. He said it was a “simple fact.”
Iraq’s Kurds have indeed come a long way since their leaders were guerrilla fighters in the mountains confronting Saddam Hussein’s government, which did not hesitate to use chemical attacks to kill thousands of people.
The Kurdish region continues to solidify its position as a haven of security and prosperity compared with the rest of Iraq. Oil companies and foreign investors are pouring into the region hoping to use it as a launch pad for expansion into the rest of Iraq when the right moment comes.
Last year the region’s booming capital, Erbil, became home to the first official General Motors dealership in all of Iraq since the fall of Mr. Hussein’s government.
This month the Lebanese pop sensation Elissa will make her Iraq debut at a concert in Erbil.
The Kurds’ status as major players and power brokers was amply demonstrated during the protracted negotiations over a new election law in the fall.
Crossroads
But like the rest of Iraq, Kurdistan stands at a crossroads in 2010. The outcome of several unresolved national issues involving Kurds will determine whether Iraq forges ahead on the road to democracy or spirals into endless cycles of violence.
Kurds generally refer to everything beyond their so-called fault line as “the other side.” The line cuts through oil-rich and disputed territories that stretch from northwestern Iraq close to the Syrian border all the way to the Iranian border to the east.
The American military recently began establishing joint checkpoints along this fault line in a bid to get Kurdish forces known as pesh merga and the Iraqi Army to cooperate on security and prevent insurgents and extremists from exploiting the situation while giving politicians the space to work out a settlement.
“These sort of measures are Band-Aids to build confidence and generate stability that gives people a better environment to work through” their differences, said Barham Salih, the Kurdish region’s prime minister, in a recent interview.
The big question in 2010 and beyond will be whether or not the Kurdish region and the central government take advantage of these “Band-Aids” before the withdrawal of American troops by the end of 2011.
“I think as the Americans are leaving I am very, very concerned,” Mr. Salih cautioned.
However he dismissed mounting concerns over the Balkanization of Iraq.
“This is no Bosnia,” he said. “People have bumped along. My sense is that the story of Iraq in the next four years will be bumping along, trying different permutations and different coalitions.”
Kirkuk
There is, nevertheless, a lot at stake. The Kurds and the central government have to resolve the fate of the disputed territories including the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and agree on a formula to share resources and the revenue from Iraq’s oil wealth.
Also, they need to define the relationship between the Kurdish armed forces, the pesh merga, and Iraq’s army.
But more fundamentally they have to agree on the shape of Iraq itself, whether it should be a centrally governed state or more of a federation of regions and provinces, as favored by the Kurds.
None of this deliberation is possible without security, leading sometimes to draconian measures like requiring all Iraqis arriving from the south to obtain special clearance before entering Kurdistan – something that infuriates Arabs.
Masrour Barzani, a Kurdish intelligence chief, said the region simply could not take a chance because Iraqi security forces farther south had demonstrated their failure to control the situation.
He said Kurdish forces needed to be present inside the disputed northern territories – even though their fate has yet to be decided under the Constitution – to protect Kurds living there and to create a buffer security zone.
Nineveh
He said neighboring Nineveh remains the strongest foothold in Iraq for insurgents linked to Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and Mr. Hussein’s former governing Baath Party.
“We believe in democracy, we believe in coexistence, we have tried after all the atrocities to prevent the war between Kurds and Arabs,” Mr. Barzani said.
“Unfortunately some elements do not believe in that, and they push for it.”
But in addition to external threats, serious internal challenges have conjured up memories of Kurdish infighting in the 1990s.
For the first time ever, the region’s two ruling parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, face a serious challenge to their political and economic hegemony.
A new movement called Gorran, which means “change” in Kurdish, did surprisingly well in July’s local elections running on a platform of social equality and an end to corruption and the decades-long patronage system associated with the two parties.
The competition between Gorran and the ruling parties is so intense in the weeks leading to March’s national elections that the regional president had to intervene last month to put an end to spiraling tensions that included the killing of a Gorran supporter and the burning of the office of a Gorran politician.
The Other Side
I just received a six-month residency permit here, and the top of the laminated card reads in both Kurdish and Arabic: “The Federal Republic of Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Government.”
A Kurdish security officer told me that it would not be recognized on “the other side,” farther south.
This truly sums up the current state of affairs between the Kurdish region and the central government: attached yet detached.
Baghdad Bureau
Iraq’s Kurds have indeed come a long way since their leaders were guerrilla fighters in the mountains confronting Saddam Hussein’s government, which did not hesitate to use chemical attacks to kill thousands of people.
The Kurdish region continues to solidify its position as a haven of security and prosperity compared with the rest of Iraq. Oil companies and foreign investors are pouring into the region hoping to use it as a launch pad for expansion into the rest of Iraq when the right moment comes.
Last year the region’s booming capital, Erbil, became home to the first official General Motors dealership in all of Iraq since the fall of Mr. Hussein’s government.
This month the Lebanese pop sensation Elissa will make her Iraq debut at a concert in Erbil.
The Kurds’ status as major players and power brokers was amply demonstrated during the protracted negotiations over a new election law in the fall.
Crossroads
But like the rest of Iraq, Kurdistan stands at a crossroads in 2010. The outcome of several unresolved national issues involving Kurds will determine whether Iraq forges ahead on the road to democracy or spirals into endless cycles of violence.
Kurds generally refer to everything beyond their so-called fault line as “the other side.” The line cuts through oil-rich and disputed territories that stretch from northwestern Iraq close to the Syrian border all the way to the Iranian border to the east.
The American military recently began establishing joint checkpoints along this fault line in a bid to get Kurdish forces known as pesh merga and the Iraqi Army to cooperate on security and prevent insurgents and extremists from exploiting the situation while giving politicians the space to work out a settlement.
“These sort of measures are Band-Aids to build confidence and generate stability that gives people a better environment to work through” their differences, said Barham Salih, the Kurdish region’s prime minister, in a recent interview.
The big question in 2010 and beyond will be whether or not the Kurdish region and the central government take advantage of these “Band-Aids” before the withdrawal of American troops by the end of 2011.
“I think as the Americans are leaving I am very, very concerned,” Mr. Salih cautioned.
However he dismissed mounting concerns over the Balkanization of Iraq.
“This is no Bosnia,” he said. “People have bumped along. My sense is that the story of Iraq in the next four years will be bumping along, trying different permutations and different coalitions.”
Kirkuk
There is, nevertheless, a lot at stake. The Kurds and the central government have to resolve the fate of the disputed territories including the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and agree on a formula to share resources and the revenue from Iraq’s oil wealth.
Also, they need to define the relationship between the Kurdish armed forces, the pesh merga, and Iraq’s army.
But more fundamentally they have to agree on the shape of Iraq itself, whether it should be a centrally governed state or more of a federation of regions and provinces, as favored by the Kurds.
None of this deliberation is possible without security, leading sometimes to draconian measures like requiring all Iraqis arriving from the south to obtain special clearance before entering Kurdistan – something that infuriates Arabs.
Masrour Barzani, a Kurdish intelligence chief, said the region simply could not take a chance because Iraqi security forces farther south had demonstrated their failure to control the situation.
He said Kurdish forces needed to be present inside the disputed northern territories – even though their fate has yet to be decided under the Constitution – to protect Kurds living there and to create a buffer security zone.
Nineveh
He said neighboring Nineveh remains the strongest foothold in Iraq for insurgents linked to Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and Mr. Hussein’s former governing Baath Party.
“We believe in democracy, we believe in coexistence, we have tried after all the atrocities to prevent the war between Kurds and Arabs,” Mr. Barzani said.
“Unfortunately some elements do not believe in that, and they push for it.”
But in addition to external threats, serious internal challenges have conjured up memories of Kurdish infighting in the 1990s.
For the first time ever, the region’s two ruling parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, face a serious challenge to their political and economic hegemony.
A new movement called Gorran, which means “change” in Kurdish, did surprisingly well in July’s local elections running on a platform of social equality and an end to corruption and the decades-long patronage system associated with the two parties.
The competition between Gorran and the ruling parties is so intense in the weeks leading to March’s national elections that the regional president had to intervene last month to put an end to spiraling tensions that included the killing of a Gorran supporter and the burning of the office of a Gorran politician.
The Other Side
I just received a six-month residency permit here, and the top of the laminated card reads in both Kurdish and Arabic: “The Federal Republic of Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Government.”
A Kurdish security officer told me that it would not be recognized on “the other side,” farther south.
This truly sums up the current state of affairs between the Kurdish region and the central government: attached yet detached.
Baghdad Bureau
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