Tuesday, January 05, 2010

In Yemen, US faces leader who puts family first

The US is quickly ramping up its aid to Yemen, which Washington sees as a revived new front against al-Qaeda. But one of the most delicate tasks will be managing the relationship with the President of Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has filled his government with numerous family members and who wants to ensure that his son Ahmed succeeds him, Yemeni officials, analysts and Western diplomats say.

Saleh, 67, is wily, witty and fit. But he has been spending less time in the past two years managing the tribal and regional demands of fragile Yemen than trying to consolidate the power of his family, the analysts say. As Yemen’s oil revenues erode and Saleh has fewer resources to spread, the reach of the central government has been shrinking, one Western diplomat said.

Saleh presents the Obama administration with a problem that is all too familiar in Afghanistan and Pakistan. He is amenable to American support, but his ineffective and corrupt bureaucracy has limited reach. And his willingness to battle al-Qaeda, which he does not view as his main enemy, is questionable.

Much of Yemen is in turmoil. Government forces on Monday killed two suspected Qaeda militants. There is another round of rebellion in the north and a growing secessionist movement in the south. In important provinces where key oil resources are and where al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is strong, government troops and the police largely remain in their barracks or in the central cities. Order outside the cities is kept by tribal chiefs, with their own complicated loyalties.

“You can’t see anyone in a government uniform in Abyan,” said Murad Zafir, a Yemeni political analyst, referring to a southern province.

US aid was paltry until last year, and it was only when American intelligence could show Saleh that his family was being singled out by al-Qaeda that he began to take the group’s threat seriously, diplomats said. How effectively Yemen addresses the threat depends largely on Saleh’s family. Son Ahmed Saleh is head of the Yemen Republican Guard and the country’s special forces. The President’s nephews include Amar, the deputy director for national security; Yahye, head of the central security forces and the counterterrorism unit; and Tarek, head of the Presidential Guard. His half brother is head of the air force.

The sense of Yemen as a family corporation that has also enriched itself is part of the problem, Zafir said. “President Saleh wants his son to succeed him,” he said. To make that happen, he has sought to consolidate power in his family’s hands, but his influence over the tribal chiefs has receded, Zafir said.

But there are challenges to Saleh’s goals of empowering his son. One of his main allies, Ali Mohsen, who is the military commander in charge of the effort to stamp out the Houthi rebellion to the north, has signaled that he does not favour succession of Ahmed Saleh. He believes the younger Saleh lacks the personal strength of his father. NYT

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Yemen launches al-Qaeda offensive

SANA: Yemen launched a major offensive against al-Qaeda and the US embassy in Sana reopened on Tuesday after security forces dealt with an imminent security threat. Yemen has sent thousands of troops to take part in a campaign against al-Qaeda in three provinces, and authorities have already detained five suspected fighters, a source said on Tuesday. The campaign is continuing in the capital and in the provinces of Shabwa and Maarib, the source told Reuters, on condition of anonymity. The manhunt was also going on in Abyan province.

The American embassy in Yemen reopened after a raid that killed two al-Qaeda militants dealt with specific security concerns which had forced US and European missions to close, the embassy said.

Indian Express

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