Report: Two-Year Delay for Joint Strike Fighter (Updated)

The Obama administration’s apparently successful campaign to end production of the F-22 stealth fighter hinged on at least one very big assumption: that the newer F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (pictured) would more than make up for a curtailed Raptor fleet. “It [the F-35] is a versatile aircraft, less than half the total cost of the F-22, and can be produced in quantity with all the advantages produced by economies of scale — some 500 will be bought over the next five years, more than 2,400 over the life of the program,” Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said in a speech in Chicago on July 16.

Problem is, Gates’ assertions might be wrong, if one recent internal Pentagon report holds true. The Joint Estimate Team “determined that the fighter won’t be able to move out of the development phase and into full production until 2016,” CQ’s Josh Rogin noted. The F-35 program office has promised full production in 2014, ramping up to around a jet per day. The delay is due to slower-than-expected progress in flight testing. The test flight goal for the current fiscal year is 317 sorties, Bill Sweetman revealed. “The total so far … is more like 30 flights, with a little more than two months to go.”

The Air Force’s plans for the F-35 don’t allow for much wiggle room. Many F-15s, F-16s and A-10s fly under restrictions due to age-related structural problems. Gates tapped 250 of the oldest jets for retirement, this year — for the first time dropping the Air Force below its requirement for 2,250 fighters. “Every day without a solution, this situation becomes more and more urgent,” Air Guard Lt. Gen. Harry Wyatt told Congress.

“The JET is not the gospel. It is but one view, albeit an important one, of our testing program,” Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said. But if the JET report does turn out to be true, it could undermine Gates’ assurances of a stable fighter fleet. Gates said the Pentagon would have “2,500 manned combat aircraft of all kinds” by 2020. “Of those, nearly 1,100 will be the most advanced fifth generation F-35s and F-22s,” he added. But that depends on the F-35 arriving on time.

Update 16:17 EST: Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary, called to clarify a few points. The JET study is not new, he emphasized — in fact, it’s nearly a year old, and its findings were widely published and fully available to Congress. Rogin’s CQ piece, Morrell said, amounts to “recycling.” It’s possible that Rogin was swayed by F-22 supporters in Congress and industry, to dredge up old, “bad” news about the F-35.

But the news is not that bad, Morrell emphasized. He said the Pentagon is gathering data on F-35 testing, in order to determine whether to add more flights and more aircraft to the test process. More resources could get the overall F-35 program back on schedule, if it were late. “Delays in testing does not mean getting delay on [Initial Operating Capability],” Morrell said. He did not say how much accelerated testing might cost.
Wired

Maybe Obama will decide the F35 is a "waste" too, and cancel it.