Unrest could hinder Tehran's regional goals

CAIRO (AP) - Iran has had an impressive run for the past decade - expanding its regional muscle through proxy militias, its expanding missile capabilities and its big brother role with Iraq's Shiites after the toppling of arch-foe Saddam Hussein.

But the fallout from the post-election unrest will most likely bring tougher times for Iran's ambitions beyond its borders.

"Instability inside Iran will minimize the state's capacity to project power in the region and beyond, a practice in which Iran has been very successful recently," said Amr Hamzawy, a Middle East expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think tank.

It's been a steady string of advances claimed by Iran or its allies.

In 2000, Iranian-backed Hezbollah guerrillas proclaimed victory after Israel pulled its troops out of south Lebanon after 20-plus years of occupation. In 2003, a U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein's hostile regime, replacing it with a new political system dominated by Shiite parties closely linked to Iran.

Armed and trained by Iran, Hezbollah again withstood an invasion by far superior Israeli forces in a 35-day 2006 war. A year later, Iranian-backed Hamas militants seized control of the Gaza Strip, defeating forces loyal to the Western-backed Palestinian president.

Iran's economic and political support also has enabled Syria to survive U.S. sanctions and international isolation, thus keeping it firmly in the hard-line camp opposed to U.S.-backed rivals Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

But the ironclad image of a confident Iran - united behind its clerical leadership - has been shattered in the violent challenge to June 12 election results that showed a landslide re-election of hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Clashes erupted over the past week between supporters of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi and militiamen loyal to the regime in the worst unrest in Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution. The violence, captured in thousands of compelling images posted on the Internet for the world to see, has brought harsh criticism from a United States that has been reaching out to Iran to end 30 years of animosity and, significantly, from key trading partners France and Germany.

If the regime rides out the crisis over the election, experts say a much more ideologically entrenched Iran could emerge and pursue regional goals more forcefully, including seeking to broaden its footprint in neighboring Iraq and resisting compromises over the scope of its nuclear program.

But if it bows to demands by Mousavi for a new election - which now appears unlikely - the regime would be seen as weakened by Arab states but perhaps less of a regional rival.

Iran has in the past few years taken advantage of the waning powers of such regional heavyweights as Saudi Arabia and Egypt to gain leverage in the Middle East. Its effort was helped by a surge of anti-American sentiments among Arabs after the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the war on terror waged by former U.S. President George W. Bush.

However, continuing unrest would distract Iran from regional affairs, leaving Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas unable to count on Tehran's largesse and vulnerable in the face of domestic rivals.

"If there is a more serious and violent repression of protests and a consolidation of power behind the ruling bloc, then the Arab world could be facing a more entrenched and hostile regime for years to come," said Michael W. Hanna, a Middle East expert from the Century Foundation in New York.

Under normal circumstances, Iran's immediate regional policy objective now would be to revive a Shiite alliance in Iraq ahead of a Jan. 30 general election. This would ensure that Tehran's Iraqi allies maintain their grip on power at a time of growing uncertainty about security in view of the diminishing U.S. military presence in the run-up to a full withdrawal of forces by the end of 2011.

The absence of an active, high-level Iranian role could doom the alliance, thus fragmenting Shiite power and seriously hurting the comeback chances of the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, Tehran's closest Iraqi ally. The council suffered embarrassing losses in provincial elections in January in what is believed to be a backlash against religious parties.

"Continued instability ... will blunt Iranian initiative in shaping political events in its strategically significant neighbor," said Hanna.

But Iraqi lawmaker Mustafa al-Hiti, a Sunni Muslim, offers a different take.

"Neither of them (Ahmadinejad and Mousavi) will change his country's policy toward Iraq," he said. "Both will want to gain as much control as possible of our country and by any means possible."

Besides Iraq, Hezbollah would be the group most affected by who wins Iran's confrontation - the militant wing led by Khamenei and Ahmadinejad or the camp of reformist-minded politicians and clerics to which Mousavi belongs.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah shares with Khamenei and Ahmadinejad a deeply rooted hatred for the United States and a firm belief that years of peace talks with Israel have come to nothing and only armed struggle would restore Palestinian rights.

"Your re-election represents a great hope to all the oppressed people, holy warriors and resistance fighters," Nasrallah wrote to Ahmadinejad two days after the June 12 vote.
MyWay

Something that might never have happened without Obama Cairo speech.

But the GOP is blind to it all, only looking out for itself and a bridge back to power. Shame On You!