Who Authorized the Syria Raid? (Updated)

Erin Simpson is a civilian academic working for the U.S. Marine Corps. She blogs on all things counterinsurgency at Abu Muqawama.

I've been trying to wrap my brain around the Syria raid earlier this week. But two articles are sticking in my craw.

First, Eli Lake (late of the later New York Sun), reports in The New Republic that the attack into Syria was part of a blanket authorization of cross-border raids for both Iraq and Afghanistan, approved earlier this summer.

In July, according to three administration sources, the Bush administration formally gave the military new power to strike terrorist safe havens outside of Iraq and Afghanistan. Before then, a military strike in a country like Syria or Pakistan would have required President Bush's personal approval. Now, those kinds of strikes in the region can occur at the discretion of the incoming commander of Central Command (Centcom), General David Petraeus. One intelligence source described the order as institutionalizing the "Chicago Way," an allusion to Sean Connery's famous soliloquy about bringing a gun to a knife fight.

So that brings us to the million dollar question: Who authorized the attack? The most likely answer is Petraeus. But two things have my second-guessing myself. First, this was a special operations raid -- meaning it could have been authorized through JSOC (Joint Special Operations Command) and not Centcom. (And, though of course I can't find them now, some reports earlier in the week suggested this was an OGA, not Army, endeavor.)

Second, ABC News is reporting that Petraeus proposed opening talks with the Syrians:

ABC News has learned [that] Petraeus proposed visiting Syria shortly after taking over as the top U.S. commander for the Middle East. The idea was swiftly rejected by Bush administration officials at the White House, State Department and the Pentagon....Officials familiar with Petraeus' thinking on the subject say he wants to engage Syria in part because he believes that U.S. diplomacy can be used to drive a wedge between Syria and Iran. He plans to continue pushing the idea.

Now, it's not inconceivable that Petraeus would want to open talks and then subsequently authorize cross-border raids against a high-value target. But it's not entirely consistent either. If this raid somehow occurred in Centcom's area of operations, but without Petraeus' explicit approval (ie, it went through JSOC), then things are way more FUBAR than even I realized.

If, on the other hand, King David did authorize the raid, it begs the questions as to how he incorporates this strike into his broader regional strategy. Is it a signal to the Syrians? An effort to further degrade Al Qaeda in Iraq, so as to allow for more regional diplomacy? Or is it yet another instance of operations driving strategy?

Said differently, WTF is really going on here?

UPDATE: How's this for a wild theory -- the government in Damascus green lit the raid, an Israeli intelligence expert claims."
Wired