Sunday, November 16, 2008

The Army under Obama

President-elect Barack Obama, who has said he knows he must earn the military’s respect, now faces delivering on some of his promises, especially ending the war in Iraq without leaving chaos behind and restoring stability to the lives of troops and their families.

Some early signs will come when the Obama administration draws up its first defense budget, expected to be delivered to Congress within three months of his January inauguration.

During his campaign, the senator from Illinois pledged to have a “people first” national security plan, including military pay raises that restore parity with the private sector, more time between deployments for active and reserve forces, and increased focus on family and health care matters.

Some of those details will be fleshed out in the budget. For example:

• Obama promised “pay parity” for service members without really defining what that means.

It could mean he will support military pay hikes that keep pace with average increases in the private sector, which is exactly what the Bush administration wanted to do. Or it could mean Obama supports continuing to close the perceived gap between military and civilian pay, which after the 3.9 percent pay raise coming on Jan. 1 will be about 2.9 percentage points. A one-time raise that closes the remaining pay gap would cost about $1.7 billion in the 2010 budget.

But Obama also could follow the lead of Congress, which for the past nine years has provided a raise for the military that is a modest 0.5 percentage points more than the average private-sector increase, a formula that requires only about $600 million in additional funding.

• Obama promised to withdraw U.S. combat troops from Iraq within 16 months of taking office, if conditions allow. That would make it possible to keep a second promise to “establish regularity” in deployments for active-duty members and limit deployments for National Guard and reserve members to no longer than two years, with no more than one deployment every six years.

Rudy deLeon, deputy defense secretary during the Clinton administration, said reducing the operating tempo for troops is one of the top things Obama can do for troops and their families.

Waiting for the Army and Marine Corps to grow so more people can share the burden of deployments will take years, said deLeon, now senior vice president for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress.

Obama also vowed to end stop-loss, still used by the Army, but it is unclear if that is possible without leaving gaps in deploying units.

• Rebuilding the armed forces with a view toward the future is another Obama pledge. In some ways, he’s talking about following trends already underway: Moving toward a military that has more special operations forces, civil affairs, foreign area officers and linguists. Obama has talked of creating a specialized military adviser corps of experts who can help address mutual threats.

Rebuilding the military also means taking a new look at current and future weapons programs and prioritizing systems that can be of use in multiple scenarios. Decisions on weapons programs can’t be made without congressional input, but the budget could give some early indication of intentions.

• Obama also vowed to ease the transition to civilian life for veterans, especially wounded combat veterans. He promised improved coordination between the Pentagon and the Department of Veterans Affairs on standardizing and sharing personnel and medical records, expanding mental health services and putting more veterans centers in rural areas. None are new ideas, but all need money and attention in order to be accomplished.

• While Obama can have any advisers he wants, he proposed creating a military family advisory panel, which would require legislation if it were to be a formal group with the same kind of support as other advisory committees. The idea, Obama said, is to have a formal process in which military families provide input to senior military leaders about issues involving health care, education, relocation and spouse employment.

The new GI Bill
The Obama administration will be responsible for overseeing VA’s implementation of the sweeping new Post-9/11 GI Bill.

Obama was an early supporter of Sen. Jim Webb’s plan, which promises full tuition payments plus a living stipend and book allowance.

The highly anticipated program takes effect Aug. 1. Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America is pushing for the Obama administration to announce specifics of its GI Bill plans within 100 days of taking office.

Leadership style
Obama and Vice President-elect Joe Biden have talked about having great respect for the views of military leaders and working to build a sense of purpose for government service.

Showing respect will mean the Obama administration will not repeat a mistake of the Clinton administration, which decided as one of its earliest acts to repeal the military’s longstanding ban on open service by gays.

Obama wants the ban lifted, but said he would not try to do this without first consulting military leaders. Repealing the ban could be done only with the consent of Congress, and Obama said he has no plans to make this one of his early initiatives.

Obama’s ambitious plans face hurdles, however; decisions about defense often include tradeoffs.

For example, he is likely to have enough votes in Congress to support a timetable for withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from Iraq. But cutting forces there will not necessarily make it easier for him to guarantee regular deployment schedules because additional forces will be needed in Afghanistan.

Still, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California said she expects an early House vote on an Iraq withdrawal timetable and a deployment schedule for troops that guarantees more time between combat tours. The House passed similar legislation before, only to see it die in the Senate, partly because President Bush threatened to veto any bill containing such language. With the threat of a veto gone, Pelosi said this is something Congress could do early.

Obama talked about a fast pace for withdrawal, with one or two combat brigades coming out of Iraq each month. That pace could be too fast to win support of military leaders — but too slow for some House Democrats.

Money for defense programs also could be an issue if Iraq operations wind down because many people — including progressive Democrats in the House — will expect a “peace dividend” that would provide money for domestic needs such as health care, highway construction and education.

Because Iraq and Afghanistan have been funded largely through off-budget supplemental funding, however, pulling out of Iraq won’t leave room in the budget for extra defense spending.

And lawmakers’ demands for a peace dividend could encourage a raid on peacetime defense funds at a time when the services — especially the Army and Marine Corps — need to repair or replace weapons and gear destroyed, damaged, worn out or missing after years of Iraq deployments.

Resetting equipment and returning to a peacetime training schedule for a wide range of combat capabilities should be a priority for Obama, deLeon said, because it will leave the military better prepared for other contingencies and will be a symbol of stability from the new administration.

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev’s Nov. 5 news conference also gave an early sign that Obama will have little time for on-the-job national security training. Medvedev said Russia would deploy short-ranged missiles aimed at NATO if the U.S. goes ahead with plans to base a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Obama has promised a complete review of defense weapons programs, which cannot happen quickly because it involves re-evaluating threats and rebalancing capabilities. Similar reviews by past administrations have taken a year or longer.

Obama generally believes that multinational operations are better than unilateral operations, and he has talked of getting allies — especially NATO — to take on a bigger role in Afghanistan.

But nudging the NATO allies to action never happens quickly, which will leave the U.S. to carry the burden while he tries to win broader international support.

Army Times

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