.Truce between Russia, Georgia flawed, some say
BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) - A truce between warring Russia and Georgia appeared at first to be a breakthrough, but some fear it may have given the Russians a loophole to continue their action in the former Soviet republic.
Since the hastily drafted six-point plan was announced Wednesday, Russian forces have continued to sweep through Georgian territory, beyond the contested regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in apparent violation of the truce.
The Georgians accuse the Russians of ignoring the truce, and are concerned that the pact doesn't have a timetable.
Article 5 of the plan, brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, allows the Russian to "implement additional security measures" in Georgia pending the setting up of an "international mechanism" to monitor the conflict zone.
Analysts fear that wording - which diplomats in Brussels say was introduced at Russia's insistence - could be used to justify incursions like those Wednesday and Thursday in the city of Gori and other Georgian locations.
The Russians say they are keeping order in those locations and preventing looting of arms depots.
In Paris on Thursday, U.S. and French officials fleshed out details of the pact that includes apparent concessions to Moscow but preserves Georgian borders, U.S. officials said.
If both sides agree, the pact would allow Russian peacekeepers who were in South Ossetia before the fighting broke out last week to stay and would be permitted to patrol in a strip up to roughly 6 miles outside the area, the officials said.
The concession was demanded by Russia, which accuses Georgian forces of attacking the peacekeepers and pro-Russian South Ossetians there. Georgia's military move to regain control of the region prompted Russia to launch its invasion. The plan would also allow Russian peacekeepers to remain in Abkhazia, but without expanded patrol rights, the officials said.
In return, Russia would need to respect Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, something that Sarkozy and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice both stressed on Thursday after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov openly questioned the viability country's established borders.
The U.S. officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the pact is not finalized and there are still U.S. and Georgian concerns about the expanded patrol rights that need to be worked out.
The officials acknowledged the solution was not perfect, but said their primary goal is to get Russian forces out of Georgia quickly. They said they would only accept the expanded patrols if they were limited, well defined and temporary.
Russian patrols outside South Ossetia would stop once a new international peacekeeping force is in place, the official said, adding that the Russians would not be allowed to use the 6-mile band "to impede legitimate Georgian movement." Rice plans to discuss the plan Friday with pro-Western Georgian leader, Mikhail Saakashvili.
Sarkozy said Russia would begin withdrawing its troops from South Ossetia, Abkahzia and Georgia proper once Saakashvili signs the pact.
French officials have acknowledged that Wednesday's peace deal was flawed, but they say it was the best they could get to halt the full-scale fighting that flared last week when Russian troops poured into South Ossetia.
EU foreign ministers agreed at an emergency meeting Wednesday to prepare an international mission, but the deployment could still be weeks away and the Georgians are concerned that will give Russia time to exploit the vagueness in the peace deal.
Other elements of Wednesday's pact are no use of force; a cessation of hostilities; free access for humanitarian aid, talks on a long-term security in the disputed territories and a return of Georgian troops to their barracks.
"The Russians don't need much justification to do pretty much what they want, they've shown that they've got a free hand here anyway, but any legal justification that can help will always be used," says James Nixey, manager of the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House in London.
While Thursday's pact appeared to be an attempt to address concerns from Georgia and the West, experts saw flaws in the original French-brokered agreement.
The provision calling for Georgian forces to return to their barracks would leave Georgia without a presence in the two contested regions, said Stephen Flanagan, director of the International Security Program at Washington-based Center For Strategic and International Studies.
"They (Russians) are taking fuller control of the region and creating a situation where they get the Georgians out so they get little leverage on which to negotiate the future status of the regions," he said.
Robert Hunter, former ambassador to NATO under President Clinton and senior adviser for RAND Corporation, said Wednesday's proposal does not spell out a timetable and that Russian interpretation that peacekeeping forces can enter Georgia to respond to provocations also poses problems.
"Anything allowing Russia to be in Gori is clearly not useful or acceptable for Georgians," because of its strategic and close proximity to the only oil pipeline that Georgia controls, Hunter said.
Hunter said the U.S. also needs to monitor Saakashvili.
"Georgians do have an interest in provocation and need to be kept under control," he said. "Because the incentive for the Georgians is to have the Russians do nasty things which will then help their bargaining with the outside world."
MyWay
You see even the Russians agree we need international Peacekeepers
Since the hastily drafted six-point plan was announced Wednesday, Russian forces have continued to sweep through Georgian territory, beyond the contested regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in apparent violation of the truce.
The Georgians accuse the Russians of ignoring the truce, and are concerned that the pact doesn't have a timetable.
Article 5 of the plan, brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, allows the Russian to "implement additional security measures" in Georgia pending the setting up of an "international mechanism" to monitor the conflict zone.
Analysts fear that wording - which diplomats in Brussels say was introduced at Russia's insistence - could be used to justify incursions like those Wednesday and Thursday in the city of Gori and other Georgian locations.
The Russians say they are keeping order in those locations and preventing looting of arms depots.
In Paris on Thursday, U.S. and French officials fleshed out details of the pact that includes apparent concessions to Moscow but preserves Georgian borders, U.S. officials said.
If both sides agree, the pact would allow Russian peacekeepers who were in South Ossetia before the fighting broke out last week to stay and would be permitted to patrol in a strip up to roughly 6 miles outside the area, the officials said.
The concession was demanded by Russia, which accuses Georgian forces of attacking the peacekeepers and pro-Russian South Ossetians there. Georgia's military move to regain control of the region prompted Russia to launch its invasion. The plan would also allow Russian peacekeepers to remain in Abkhazia, but without expanded patrol rights, the officials said.
In return, Russia would need to respect Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, something that Sarkozy and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice both stressed on Thursday after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov openly questioned the viability country's established borders.
The U.S. officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the pact is not finalized and there are still U.S. and Georgian concerns about the expanded patrol rights that need to be worked out.
The officials acknowledged the solution was not perfect, but said their primary goal is to get Russian forces out of Georgia quickly. They said they would only accept the expanded patrols if they were limited, well defined and temporary.
Russian patrols outside South Ossetia would stop once a new international peacekeeping force is in place, the official said, adding that the Russians would not be allowed to use the 6-mile band "to impede legitimate Georgian movement." Rice plans to discuss the plan Friday with pro-Western Georgian leader, Mikhail Saakashvili.
Sarkozy said Russia would begin withdrawing its troops from South Ossetia, Abkahzia and Georgia proper once Saakashvili signs the pact.
French officials have acknowledged that Wednesday's peace deal was flawed, but they say it was the best they could get to halt the full-scale fighting that flared last week when Russian troops poured into South Ossetia.
EU foreign ministers agreed at an emergency meeting Wednesday to prepare an international mission, but the deployment could still be weeks away and the Georgians are concerned that will give Russia time to exploit the vagueness in the peace deal.
Other elements of Wednesday's pact are no use of force; a cessation of hostilities; free access for humanitarian aid, talks on a long-term security in the disputed territories and a return of Georgian troops to their barracks.
"The Russians don't need much justification to do pretty much what they want, they've shown that they've got a free hand here anyway, but any legal justification that can help will always be used," says James Nixey, manager of the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House in London.
While Thursday's pact appeared to be an attempt to address concerns from Georgia and the West, experts saw flaws in the original French-brokered agreement.
The provision calling for Georgian forces to return to their barracks would leave Georgia without a presence in the two contested regions, said Stephen Flanagan, director of the International Security Program at Washington-based Center For Strategic and International Studies.
"They (Russians) are taking fuller control of the region and creating a situation where they get the Georgians out so they get little leverage on which to negotiate the future status of the regions," he said.
Robert Hunter, former ambassador to NATO under President Clinton and senior adviser for RAND Corporation, said Wednesday's proposal does not spell out a timetable and that Russian interpretation that peacekeeping forces can enter Georgia to respond to provocations also poses problems.
"Anything allowing Russia to be in Gori is clearly not useful or acceptable for Georgians," because of its strategic and close proximity to the only oil pipeline that Georgia controls, Hunter said.
Hunter said the U.S. also needs to monitor Saakashvili.
"Georgians do have an interest in provocation and need to be kept under control," he said. "Because the incentive for the Georgians is to have the Russians do nasty things which will then help their bargaining with the outside world."
MyWay
You see even the Russians agree we need international Peacekeepers
posted by madtom at 7:17 PM
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