Jonathan Kay on Iraq's new optimism

This morning saw the release of a new 2,200-respondent survey of Iraq conducted by ABC News, the BBC, ARD German TV and the Japanese broadcaster NHK. You can read the whole 46-page report here. The highlights, as I see them, run as follows:

Iraqis are a lot happier than they were in August, 2007, just before the U.S. troop surge. In the just-released poll, 55% of respondents reported their life is "going well." In the August, 2007 poll, the figure was just 39%. 62% describe their local security situation as "good," compared with 43% in August. 46% expect Iraq will be in better shape in a year — compared with 23% in August.

Iraq is now a bad place to be Sunni. Six in 10 Shiite respondents say their life is going well, as do seven in 10 Kurds. For respondents who identified themselves as members of the Sunni minority, on the other hand, just 12% said their life is going well. Only 12% of Sunnis say they think Iraq will provide a "better life for [their] children", versus 50% of Shiites, and 59% of Kurds.

Iraqis aren't exactly enamored of Americans, but most don't want U.S. troops to leave. 49% of respondents said the 2003 invasion was "right" — compared to 37% back in August. Only 38% of respondents said that coalition forces should leave Iraq, down from 47% in August. This is good news for John McCain, who can truthfully tell American voters that his plan to keep U.S. troops in Iraq indefinitely is in-line with what Iraqis themselves want. It also helps explain why radicals such as Moqtada al-Sadr have lost influence over the last year: Just 42% of Iraqis say that attacks on U.S. troops are "acceptable" — down from 57% last August. Even amongst Sunnis, only 62% justify attacks on Americans, versus 93% in August.

Iraqis hate al-Qaeda a lot more than they hate Americans: 80% of respondents support American troops targeting al-Qaeda terrorists in the country.

The policy of co-opting tribal leaders into anti-al-Qaeda "Awakening Councils" has been not only a resounding success from a security point-of-view, but also has proven highly popular among Iraqis — especially Sunnis. 51% of Iraqis believe the councils have had a positive effect, versus only 16% who believe they've harmed national security. Among Sunnis, who are the ones usually terrorized by al-Qaeda jihadists, the ratio is 64% to 10%,

The Kurds eventually are going to create their own country. 98% of both Sunnis and Shiites see Iraq as continuing as a centrally governed or federated nation. Among Kurds, the figure is just 45%. A majority of Kurds foresee "separate states."

Overall then, the picture that emerges is a country that is gradually growing safer and happier. Iraqis have mixed attitudes toward the Americans, but they almost universally regard them as a lesser evil than al Qaeda. In the long tern, the flies in the ointment are Sunnis' sense of victimization, and Kurdish separatism. Big problems, to be sure. But at least the nation seems to have stepped back from the war of all-against-all that began in 2005.
NP

I have to ask, What rock are Bruno, and Jarrars, and the rest hiding under today? It's got to be a deep one, one where light has no chance to reach in a million years.