.Don’t count the chickens yet
When grim reality intrudes in a war zone, self-congratulation suddenly makes a hasty exit.
THE official US line on the Iraq quagmire was supposed to be upbeat, at least until reality got in the way late in the week.
Gen David Petraeus had just announced on Thursday that up until the day before, the preceding six-month period had seen a 60% drop in violence. Then two suicide attacks in Diyala province alone the next day killed 26 people.
As sectarian conflict continues to rage, Time magazine reported Gen Petraeus as intimating that up to 50 militant attacks a day is now considered minimal. Has the situation on the ground really improved, was it just worse before, or have standards been adjusted lately?
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said on Friday that many areas of Iraq are still too dangerous for refugees to return to. The US military itself has warned that a return of too many refugees could worsen sectarian violence, without saying how many would be too many.
All of this contradicts Iraqi and US government optimism about the latest developments. UNHCR staff in Syria said 75% of the 128,000 Iraqi refugees there who had returned over the past four months had been offset by those still going to Syria, while some 4.6 million remain abroad or internally displaced.
Meanwhile, a Los Angeles Times report on Friday said part of Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army had begun co-operating with US forces, resulting in a split in the group. This internal dispute, which the Mahdi Army denies, is understood to mean more mayhem such that overall violence may not have declined.
US officials had been hoping that a “benchmark” for national reconciliation to tame sectarian violence this year would be the re-employment of thousands of former Ba’ath Party members in government jobs.
But Parliament was suspended on Friday for holidays until the end of the year, delaying approval of legislation for the reconciliation effort to bring more Sunnis into the Shi’ite-dominated government. Relations between the Shi’ite and Sunni communities remain strained, even within Parliament, and delays tend to make things explosive.
The Washington Post also reported on Friday that US plans for Iraq’s police and military to employ tens of thousands of mostly Sunni “security volunteers” have seen reluctance from the Shi’ite-led government. Many of these volunteers are former insurgents whose supposed change in attitude is credited for the reported decline in violence, but they are still not fully trusted by the government.
The key US objective of handing control of security measures to Iraqi authorities remains elusive. It is only “still in concept,” the US military official in charge is quoted as saying, adding that the Iraqi side is “not in any way, shape or form ready to take over.”
A recent New York Times editorial questioned the utility of the “surge” of additional US troops, noting how grisly killings continue. In late November, the paper reported that Washington had lowered the standards for Iraqi government performance, undermining security in Iraq.
US generals have lately identified this underperformance as making Iraq’s government the worst problem in the country. But if that is supposed to cue US politicians on heightening pressure on Baghdad to spur necessary reforms, it has fallen on deaf ears in the White House and Congress.
Yet while US political pressure is taken off Iraq, it is increased on Iran even after the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report found that Teheran had stopped work on nuclear weapons since 2003. Other issues in recent days have also placed US officials in “damage control” mode.
The flap over the NIE report is where official rhetoric can cloud judicious understanding even at the expense of national interests. The State Department insists the disclosure only necessitates more pressure on Iran, while outside a few Western capitals and Israel it is seen as more cause to question US credibility.
At home, the Supreme Court began proceedings on the status of prisoners in Guantanamo Bay, and whether their indefinite detention by the military is unlawful. The court is challenging the constitutionality (or otherwise) of the Military Commissions Act, passed by Congress in 2004, which removed the right of habeas corpus of the prisoners.
The issues also relate to the treatment of prisoners, such as torture techniques like “waterboarding” (simulated drowning) during interrogations. The CIA has admitted to destroying two tapes of interrogations, after it was advised against it, tapes it failed to hand over to the Justice Department as requested.
Besides these questionable practices, US government agency underperformance was also reported by week’s end.
The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) set up some four years ago to aid developing countries has spent only 3% of its US$4.8bil (RM15.8bil) funds for approved projects, frustrating poor communities and tempting a re-channelling of the money to the Iraq war. Although the MCC’s budget is less than 10% of the US foreign aid budget, frustration from its delays could also fuel more violence and terror.
The Star
Non of this should be news to readers here.
THE official US line on the Iraq quagmire was supposed to be upbeat, at least until reality got in the way late in the week.
Gen David Petraeus had just announced on Thursday that up until the day before, the preceding six-month period had seen a 60% drop in violence. Then two suicide attacks in Diyala province alone the next day killed 26 people.
As sectarian conflict continues to rage, Time magazine reported Gen Petraeus as intimating that up to 50 militant attacks a day is now considered minimal. Has the situation on the ground really improved, was it just worse before, or have standards been adjusted lately?
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said on Friday that many areas of Iraq are still too dangerous for refugees to return to. The US military itself has warned that a return of too many refugees could worsen sectarian violence, without saying how many would be too many.
All of this contradicts Iraqi and US government optimism about the latest developments. UNHCR staff in Syria said 75% of the 128,000 Iraqi refugees there who had returned over the past four months had been offset by those still going to Syria, while some 4.6 million remain abroad or internally displaced.
Meanwhile, a Los Angeles Times report on Friday said part of Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army had begun co-operating with US forces, resulting in a split in the group. This internal dispute, which the Mahdi Army denies, is understood to mean more mayhem such that overall violence may not have declined.
US officials had been hoping that a “benchmark” for national reconciliation to tame sectarian violence this year would be the re-employment of thousands of former Ba’ath Party members in government jobs.
But Parliament was suspended on Friday for holidays until the end of the year, delaying approval of legislation for the reconciliation effort to bring more Sunnis into the Shi’ite-dominated government. Relations between the Shi’ite and Sunni communities remain strained, even within Parliament, and delays tend to make things explosive.
The Washington Post also reported on Friday that US plans for Iraq’s police and military to employ tens of thousands of mostly Sunni “security volunteers” have seen reluctance from the Shi’ite-led government. Many of these volunteers are former insurgents whose supposed change in attitude is credited for the reported decline in violence, but they are still not fully trusted by the government.
The key US objective of handing control of security measures to Iraqi authorities remains elusive. It is only “still in concept,” the US military official in charge is quoted as saying, adding that the Iraqi side is “not in any way, shape or form ready to take over.”
A recent New York Times editorial questioned the utility of the “surge” of additional US troops, noting how grisly killings continue. In late November, the paper reported that Washington had lowered the standards for Iraqi government performance, undermining security in Iraq.
US generals have lately identified this underperformance as making Iraq’s government the worst problem in the country. But if that is supposed to cue US politicians on heightening pressure on Baghdad to spur necessary reforms, it has fallen on deaf ears in the White House and Congress.
Yet while US political pressure is taken off Iraq, it is increased on Iran even after the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report found that Teheran had stopped work on nuclear weapons since 2003. Other issues in recent days have also placed US officials in “damage control” mode.
The flap over the NIE report is where official rhetoric can cloud judicious understanding even at the expense of national interests. The State Department insists the disclosure only necessitates more pressure on Iran, while outside a few Western capitals and Israel it is seen as more cause to question US credibility.
At home, the Supreme Court began proceedings on the status of prisoners in Guantanamo Bay, and whether their indefinite detention by the military is unlawful. The court is challenging the constitutionality (or otherwise) of the Military Commissions Act, passed by Congress in 2004, which removed the right of habeas corpus of the prisoners.
The issues also relate to the treatment of prisoners, such as torture techniques like “waterboarding” (simulated drowning) during interrogations. The CIA has admitted to destroying two tapes of interrogations, after it was advised against it, tapes it failed to hand over to the Justice Department as requested.
Besides these questionable practices, US government agency underperformance was also reported by week’s end.
The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) set up some four years ago to aid developing countries has spent only 3% of its US$4.8bil (RM15.8bil) funds for approved projects, frustrating poor communities and tempting a re-channelling of the money to the Iraq war. Although the MCC’s budget is less than 10% of the US foreign aid budget, frustration from its delays could also fuel more violence and terror.
The Star
Non of this should be news to readers here.
posted by madtom at 11:23 PM
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