Monday, November 28, 2005

US Air Power to Replace Infantry in Iraq;

"Veteran journalist Seymour Hersh is reporting in the New Yorker that the Bush administration has decided to draw down ground troops in Iraq. Knowledgeable observers strongly suspect that this step would produce a meltdown and possibly even civil war in Iraq (which could become a regional war). Bush's strategy may be to try to control the situation using air power.

Readers and colleagues often ask me why a Shiite majority and the Kurdish Peshmergas couldn't just take care of the largely Sunni Arab guerrillas. The answer is that the Sunni Arabs were the officer corps and military intelligence, and the more experienced NCOs, and they know how to do things that the Shiites and Kurds don't know how to do. The Sunni Arabs were also the country's elite and have enormous cultural capital and managerial know-how. Sunni Arab advantages will decline over time, but they are there for this generation, and no one should underestimate the guerrilla leadership. If the Americans weren't around, all those 77 Hungarian T-72 tanks that the new Iraqi military now has would be in guerrilla hands so fast it would make your head spin."
Juan Cole
Why is no one thinking or "redeploying" the troops to the border?


Blogger Moron99 said...

I am so glad that Juan Cole thinks that Bush's latest strategy will result in civil war. Juan Cole has been one of the most reliable method of forecasting events in Iraq. Dating back to his predictions that the shia would unite behind Sadr and that the fighting in Najaf would trigger a nationwide uprising Juan has been wrong with an stunning level of consistency. If he disapproves of the latest Pentagon plans then I am almost positive, without even reading them, that they must be very good plans indeed.

11:53 AM  

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